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Freight Market Update: August 30, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – U.S. Gulf Coast] Hurricane IDALIA is causing disruptions in the Southeast. Flights from Tampa and Jacksonville are canceled today (August 30th) and the ports of Tampa, Jacksonville, Charleston, and Savannah are all closed. Expect ports to reopen 24-36 hours after storm passage, if it is safe to do so.
  • [Regional – East Asia] Super Typhoon Saola is currently centered north of Luzon. The storm will move northwest-westward through Luzon Strait through the 31st while maintaining its intensity as a super typhoon. While Saola is not currently expected to make landfall in Taiwan or Southeast China there will be significant weather impacts across the region.
  • [Trucking – Mexico] A nationwide strike has been averted for now as officials from the Mexican Alliance of Carrier Organizations (AMOTAC) have agreed to sit down with federal officials. The scheduled action would have ground trucking to a halt across Mexico, as well as impacting cross-border traffic into and out of the U.S.
  • [Rail – U.S.] Norfolk Southern has said that the impacts of a recent outage could last for several weeks, though no shutdown is expected. A spokesperson said there were no indications of a cyberattack, though the cause of Monday’s outage is still under investigation.
  • [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Indications of a rate increase on the Indian to U.S. East Coast lane have been announced within the market. Space is largely available to the East Coast, while the West Coast remains tight as these services are shared with the Transpacific market and are seeing an uptick in demand.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Wind-Powered Cargo Ship Sets Sail in a Move To Make Shipping Greener

In the race to uncover ways to lower the carbon footprint of the global shipping industry, a new project called Wind Wings stands to make an outsized impact. The project, a combined effort of UK-based BAR Technologies, Cargill, and the European Union, among others—retrofits steel and glass composite sails onto existing freighters. These high-tech versions of an old-school sail stand to cut fuel use by 1.5 metric tons per wing, per day on an average ocean route.

Panama Canal Delays Have Shippers Mulling Freight Diversions

The ongoing delays at the Panama Canal due to drought conditions in the region are causing some shippers to seek alternative routes to get their inventory to its destination. This may mean sending goods destined for the East Coast of the U.S. to ports on the West Coast then using roads and rail to finish the journey. Or it may mean sending containers on ships heading through the Suez Canal, despite the possibility of longer lead times and higher upfront costs.

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 23, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Intermodal – U.S.] Rainfall from Hurricane Hilary has caused the closure of the Union Pacific and BNSF mainline rail between Southern California and Texas. The railroads expect service to be restored by 8/25 but shippers should expect additional delays as rail operations return to normal.
  • [U.S. Exports – TPWB/TAEB] Overall demand remains soft, with carriers not eyeing a bounce back until late Q1’24. Rates continue to be aggressively priced by carriers in order to fill ships as capacity remains broadly available.
  • [Ocean – FEWB] Demand remains flat—high inflation, high inventories, rising energy costs, and geopolitical instability are still impacting the demand on the European side. Carriers are eyeing a potential GRI for sometime in September, and more blank sailings and sliding vessels have been announced for next month as well.
  • [Ocean – LATAM Southbound] Exports overall remain down and ocean carriers have continued to proactively reduce FAK rates in the hopes of attracting new business.
  • [Ocean – LATAM Northbound] Brazil’s peak season usually kicks off in Q3 and although volumes are not at the same level as last year, vessel utilization has started to increase. As a result the three main ocean carriers (CMA, ZIM, MSC) have announced and/or implemented a GRI.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Panama Canal Extends Transit Restrictions Through Sept. 2

The Panama Canal Authority said last week that current restrictions on vessel draft and the number of vessels granted transit daily will remain in place until at least Sept. 2, 2023. Those restrictions are a maximum allowed draft of 44 feet, or 13.41 meters, and 32 vessels per day. Those passages are divided into categories, with 14 vessels with reservations per day in the original locks (only suitable for smaller cargo ships) and 10 in the newer, larger locks. The remaining eight spots are given to vessels without reservations.

What Was Once a Weed Could Fuel Jet Engines

Biomass fuels, or fuels created by processing plant matter, are a growing area of interest for those involved in addressing the carbon footprint of the global supply chain (like Flexport’s Flexport.org division). And as interest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) grows, several companies are hoping their non-food crop oilseed plants will be the first step to a carbon-neutral supply chain. These so-called ‘cover crops’ are grown during fallow seasons in the same fields as other food crops like soy or corn. That allows farmers to maintain their fields while generating additional income, and the result is a product that many hope will usher in that more sustainable supply chain.

 

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 16, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Ocean-TAWB] After dropping for several weeks, rates have stabilized below pre-pandemic numbers. Carriers will start trying to maintain healthy levels by managing capacity with possible blank sailings or slowing transit speeds in the coming weeks/months.
  • [Ocean-TPEB] Capacity is down from 648k TEU to 514k TEU, dropping but remaining close to the four week average of 525k.
  • [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Indian Subcontinent: No GRI has been announced for the second half of August. There are some reductions on Sri Lanka (LK) and Bangladesh (BD) origins as well as North West India to USEC. Be aware that monsoon season and a heatwave in Bangladesh may cause some operational delays at origin.
  • [Intermodal – Canada] Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) announced the addition of 1,000 53-foot refrigerated containers to its intermodal network, more than doubling their existing fleet and bringing more options to customers using their Mexico Midwest Express (MMX) Series premium intermodal service.
  • [Ocean – LANB] From the East Coast of South America, vessel utilization remains healthy and picking up right in time for peak season, while from the west utilization is low due to the saturation in the market. ONE will also be injecting capacity into the USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
How Canada’s West Coast Port Labor Negotiations Unfolded: A Timeline

After a bumpy process lasting five months, port workers in British Columbia have signed a tentative contract and operations are back to full speed ahead. In those months we’ve seen a 13-day strike, an illegal work stoppage, one voted-down proposed settlement, two tentative deals, and a federal intervention by the Canadian government. Now the focus has turned to rebuilding trust in a supply chain that has taken a financial beating during the uncertainties of the past months.

‘This Is Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better’: Panama Canal Pileup Due to Drought Reaches 154 Vessels

Wait times to transit the Panama Canal currently sit at 21 days, with 154 vessels waiting for their turn. The backup is due to restrictions put in place by the Panama Canal Authority as a result of ongoing drought conditions that began last spring and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Some sectors have already begun rerouting through the Atlantic Basin or shifting back to U.S. West Coast ports, after having shifted to the East Coast earlier in the year due to labor issues.

 

Source from Felxport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 9, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – Canada] A majority of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada membership ratified the latest deal, signaling an end to the ongoing labor disputes of the past few months. Any remaining backlog is expected to be clear of the ports in the coming weeks. Please reach out to your account team if you have questions about your shipments.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern Korea tomorrow, August 10. The storm is expected to impact both air and ocean operations in the region, with the port of Busan expected to see impacts beginning the night of the 9th and lasting at least through the 11th.
  • [Ocean – All] Driven by the strength of U.S. consumer spending trends and ongoing reductions in capacity, carriers have announced another round of GRIs across all lanes to begin August 15.
  • [Ocean – FEWB] Demand on this lane remains soft but is picking up, vessel utilization is improving, index pricing has stabilized, and more blank sailings have been announced.
  • [Trucking – U.S./Can] Cross-border market conditions remain soft, with rates continuing to drop. Shippers should anticipate reasonable rates and strong service on all freight to continue at least through the near term.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
In the Freight Business, It Feels Like a Recession [AUDIO]

With falling rates and rising costs, the U.S. trucking industry is feeling some pains after three years of increasing demand, decreasing driver pools, and other pandemic-induced effects. “When you had that surge in prices, people responded to it and thought, ‘How can we supply more?’” said Flexport Chief Economist Phil Levy. “And that wrong-footed a lot of people in the business, because they had prepared for a continuing boom,” Levy said.

What’s Working For — and Against — Retailers Heading Into the Holidays?

In an industry that relies heavily on historical data trends to forecast upcoming cycles, this year’s upcoming holiday season presents a new set of conflicting scenarios. Working in its favor are the facts that inflation is down, consumer sentiment is up, a UPS strike was averted, and consumers are itching to get back to ‘normal.’ On the flip side we see that those same consumers are hungry for bargains, the end of student loan deferrals is looming, and political/social unrest still threatens some decisions retailers make on where to focus their efforts.

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 2, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – British Columbia] A third tentative agreement has been reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada and the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA)—with a vote scheduled for Friday. As the situation continues to be fast-changing, please reach out to your account representative for the latest information on potential impacts to your shipments.
  • [Regional – Panama Canal] As of July 30, daily capacity at the Panama Canal has been lowered to roughly 32 vessels per day (10 vessels allowed in the Neopanamax lock and 22 in the Panamax lock) with potential for even steeper adjustments depending on future weather forecasts and other factors.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles will be closed Thursday, August 3 while members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) meet to discuss the status of contract negotiations.
  • [Regional – East Asia] As of writing, Typhoon Khanun is centered west of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to gradually move west-northwestward into the East China Sea through Thursday the 3rd. Port impacts are possible, please check with your account representative for updated info on potential impact on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Why Supply Chain Execs Should Watch the U.S. Housing Market

In this panel discussion with Supply Chain Dive, Flexport’s Chief Economist, Phil Levy, weighs in on the Federal Reserve’s attempt to control inflation since March of last year by increasing interest rates and how this puts a damper on the demand for personal consumer goods. He advises businesses to not overextend themselves and “watch the labor market and whether core inflationary measures are moving significantly downwards.”

Could Generative AI Solve Fashion’s Excess Stock Problems?

Advocates for generative AI believe that focusing on building the proper foundations of data science and machine learning now will pave the way for an easy-to-use generative AI-powered supply chain in the future. AI, in its current state, has already transformed supply chain management through more accurate demand forecasting, more insightful data analyses, and faster decision-making. But generative AI has the potential to take these benefits one step further by speeding up the inventory management process, for example, and solving present and future supply chain challenges.

 

Source from Flexport.com

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Western Canada port backlog to take weeks to clear: Canadian National

Canadian National Railway said it would take up to eight weeks to clear the cargo backlog from the 14 days of strike action at Western Canadian ports amid a weaker-than-expected peak season, while signaling some confidence that the longshore disruption is over as union members vote on the tentative deal reached last week.

 

“We are pleased to see an end to the work stoppage and we’re working hard to get those supply chains back in sync,” CN CEO Tracy Robinson said Tuesday during a second-quarter earnings call. “We expect to move most of the volumes that didn’t move during the first two weeks of July over the coming weeks.”

 

The result of the ratification vote by the rank and file of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada isn’t expected to be released until Saturday at the earliest, according to two people close to negotiations. The last three weeks have been marked by the whiplash of a 13-day strike, a tentative deal rejected by a union caucus, a one-day wildcat strike, a federal labor board ruling the one-day strike illegal, the union issuing and then retracting a strike notice for last weekend, and finally union leadership accepting terms of the new contract.

 

Those terms have not been publicly disclosed.

 

Beyond the strike impact, Doug MacDonald, chief marketing officer at CN, said on the call the environment for intermodal volumes, both domestic and international, will stay challenging. Pricing for domestic rail through the shipment of 53-foot containers on short-haul lanes “will be under pressure” due to increased truck availability, he added.

 

MacDonald was the latest transportation executive in recent weeks to downplay the possibility of any meaningful peak season, saying the railroad downgraded its outlook for intermodal volume growth due to shippers saying they’re expecting a weaker-than-expected second half. CN shipments via international containers and 53-foot containers fell 11% year over year in the three months ended June 30, pulling down intermodal revenue 26% to C$983 million (US$743,600).

 

“We’re not really sure what’s going to happen in [the 2024 first quarter] and beyond,” MacDonald said, answering an investor question on whether there would be a volume rebound early next year. “But what we are doing is we’re kind of forecasting a normal year beyond that, and that’s as far as we’ve gone based on what the customers have told us.”

 

The timing and health of an intermodal volume rebound on CN’s network hinges on the North American consumer, Robinson said during the earnings call, during which the Class I railroad reported net income of C$1.17 billion for the second quarter, down 12% from the same period in 2022. While CN doesn’t expect a significant restocking of retail inventories ahead of the winter holidays, Robinson said “we are expecting to see some strength start to grow and return to more normalized level, say next year.”

 

Similar to CN, forwarder Kuehne + Nagel downplayed the chances of a traditional peak season for ocean markets, with CEO Stefan Paul telling investors Tuesday that at best “there will be a slight uptick in the fourth quarter.” Last week, Matson Navigation CEO Matt Cox said he sees a “muted peak season” for the trans-Pacific, according to the company’s preliminary earnings statement.

 

Source from JOC.com

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Freight Market Update: July 26, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – British Columbia] This week, members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada are anticipated to cast their votes on a tentative contract agreement after the terms of the deal have been approved by a union caucus. For the most up-to-date information on how this may affect your shipments, please reach out to your account representative.
  • [Regional – Panama Canal] Multiple carriers have announced a Panama Canal Surcharge to go into effect on Aug 1, 2023 in response to the ongoing draft limitations brought on by continuing drought conditions in the region.
  • [Regional – Turkey] The Turkish air freight market is fully operational, but the demand is very high especially to the U.S. Consider booking “PLUS” or “URGENT” services with short notice bookings in order to secure the space.
  • [Regional – Indian Subcontinent] Air capacity is available and schedules are reliable for India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh/Pakistan. Ocean capacity is available and schedules are reliable as well. Trucking is running normally and in general equipment is widely available.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
 
Older Freighters Starting To Leave the Market

 

The transpacific air market is seeing a reduction in capacity as older freighters are retired. Sanne Manders, President, Ocean and Air at Flexport attributes this to carriers looking to ‘rightsize’ their capacity to fit current demand. For a deeper dive on this topic, please see our recent State of Trade Webinar, Is Shipping Bottoming Out or Still Descending?

Never Mind the Delivery, More Online Consumers Are Turning To Store Pickup

Buy Online, Pick up In Store (BOPIS) is an order fulfillment model that continues to grow in popularity even after the re-opening of the retail world post-pandemic. Many retailers see it as a logical extension of their use of brick-and-mortar locations as mini fulfillment centers during the height of the pandemic, and they love it because it cuts fulfillment costs by eliminating last-mile delivery altogether. Meanwhile buyers love it because it’s fast, convenient, and it saves them those same delivery fees.

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: July 19, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – British Columbia] Talks between the International Warehouse and Longshore Union (ILWU) Canada and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) have broken down for a second time, and the strike that initially closed the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert from July 1-13 has resumed.
  • [Regional – Panama Canal] Multiple carriers have announced a Panama Canal Surcharge to go into effect on Aug 1, 2023 in response to the ongoing draft limitations brought on by continuing drought conditions in the region.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Environmental regulation compliance resulting from IMO 2023 has led to vessels not returning to pre-COVID speeds, effectively removing ~8% capacity from the market.
  • [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Blank sailings through this month are expected to cause a surge in demand in early August, which will coincide with a GRI announced for Aug 1.
  • [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new/expanded services, putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Port Labor Deal in British Columbia Collapses, Strike Resumes

Talks between the International Warehouse and Longshore Union (ILWU) Canada and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) have broken down for a second time, and the strike that initially closed the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert from July 1-13 has resumed. In addition to the impact on Canadian imports, some containers unloaded at B.C. ports are shipped by rail to inland U.S. destinations, traffic that is expected to dip as a result of the renewed labor action.

Inflation Eased to 3% in June, Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years

The Consumer-Price Index (CPI) increased 3% in June, down from 4% in May. This shift signals an easing of inflation concerns and raises the possibility of the Fed not increasing interest rates after an expected rise is announced with their July meeting later in the month. For updated information and deeper dives into all things economic, please visit the Flexport Research homepage.

​Read more news summaries like this in our weekly Supply Chain Snapshots

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

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Western Canada port strike ends after sides reach deal on tentative four-year contract: source

The 13-day longshore strike that hit the Western Canadian ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert has ended after the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada and waterfront employers reached a deal on a tentative four-year contract, a source close to the matter told the Journal of Commerce Thursday.

The end of the strikes comes less than two days after Canada’s Minister of Labour ordered the federal mediator overseeing negotiations between the union and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association to provide recommendations for a settlement.

An official at BCMEA confirmed the deal and the end of the strike, which began July 1.

The strike caused multiple ships to divert from Western Canada to Seattle and Tacoma, while creating a vessel backlog off Vancouver and Prince Rupert. There were 14 container ships at anchor or offshore at the Port of Vancouver Wednesday, according to the port’s website.

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Freight Market Update: July 12, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – British Columbia] As the B.C. dock workers strike continues into its second week, please contact your account representative for the latest information on how this may impact your shipments.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Take advantage of currently soft conditions on the floating market (low rates and open space). Consider leveraging premium services as they have returned to excellent transit time performance.
  • [Ocean – LATAM] Intra-Americas volume has softened across the board. Reasons for this include inventory overstock, slack seasonality, increase in capacity, and high inflation rates in key countries like Brazil, Chile, and Colombia.
  • [Ocean – FEWB] Demand and booking intake remain flat with high inflation, inventories, and energy costs; combined with geopolitical instability impacting demand on the European side. Further impacting trade on this lane is the summer holiday that traditionally starts in July and stretches for 4-6 weeks.
  • [Air – Europe] The market on the Transatlantic lane continues to soften in both directions. Demand is softening as a large amount of capacity is added for the summer schedule by U.S. and Europe airlines. Rates that bottomed out in mid-May are showing signs of stabilization.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

Source from Flexport.com