/ By COH Marketing / Market Update（EN） • 市场动向(中文)/ 0 Comments

Freight Market Update: September 20, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Ocean – FEWB] With soft demand and the expected impact of Golden Week, FAK rates continue to drop prior to the Golden Week holiday. Capacity cut for October is estimated to be 20-30%. On the Mediterranean trade demand has weakened and more blank sailings have been announced from all 3 alliances.
  • [Air – Global] Overall market demand for air freight capacity is on the increase — particularly from Asia to the U.S. and Europe. South East Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia are most impacted with surging demand levels due to consumer electronics and semiconductor production. At the same time, China and Hong Kong are experiencing rising demand levels due to ecommerce activity and New Product Introduction (NPI). Because all of this volume routes through 3 primary export gateways in Asia—HKG, PVG, and TPE—capacity is impacted resulting in extended transit times and rising rate levels.
  • [U.S. Exports] US Export trades remain wide open with all carriers aggressively pursuing volume and pricing accordingly. Filling the backhaul remains a top priority and low rates reflect this aggressive push for market share accordingly.
  • [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Ocean freight demand ex India has softened in September resulting in carriers dropping rates. Drop in demand is expecting to persist through the first half of October.
  • [Ocean – LATAM] Space remains open both northbound and southbound—and both to and from both coasts. Brazil exports: Vessel utilization at a very healthy level (~90-95%). We recommend placing bookings 4-5 weeks prior to CRD.


Wider Trends Worth Watching:

  • Some shippers are beginning to restock after selling through last year’s overstocks, leading carriers to continue expecting a muted peak season using small gains around back-to-school and Halloween as guideposts.
  • Mexico is seen as a growing market due to the nearshoring trend continuing to expand. Yard capacity south of the border at Laredo continues to grow and more rail links are being established.
  • Shipping into the USWC is rebounding after uncertainty around labor actions and congestion in the first half of the year. Delays at the Panama Canal are a contributing factor, as are the lower rates compared to the U.S. Gulf Coast/USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
 
[VIDEO] How the Panama Canal’s Drought Is Threatening Global Supply Chains

 

Ongoing drought conditions in the region have led the Panama Canal Authority to impose several layers of restrictions on vessels transiting this crucial sea route. This 10-minute explainer video does a good job of summarizing the situation while introducing additional context and background to ensure viewers are seeing the whole picture.

Port of Long Beach Sees Modest Start to Peak Shipping Season

According to the NRF, 2023 container imports to the U.S. will hit 22.3 million TEUs, down ~12.5% from last year yet up from the 22 million seen in pre-pandemic 2019. Numbers at the Port of Long Beach as we enter peak season seem to support that prediction, seeing 682,312 TEUs last month, a decrease of 15.4% from August 2022, but an increase of 18% over July.

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: September 13, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Ocean – TAWB] Some carriers have announced withdrawal of capacity ex North Europe to US East Coast as the demand hasn’t picked up enough to justify the additional capacity—leading to the expectation that rates will bounce back from the beginning of November. Some additional capacity might enter the Mediterranean to Canada market, Ocean Alliance should announce this soon.
  • [Ocean – LATAM SB] Exports overall are down 20% since the same time last year. Since the beginning of the year, MSC has been losing market share and as a result they have proactively decreased Q4 rates to West Coast South America in an attempt to regain market share. Although they have decreased rates, they are still above other ocean carriers in the market.
  • [Ocean – LATAM > Canada] Crowley (niche LATAM carrier) recently announced the launch of a new service in partnership with CN rail that connects Mexico and Canada with a weekly ocean/rail combination between the port of Tuxpan, MX and Mobile, AL with a 2.5 day TT. This service is starting Nov 7 and they will offer dry and reefer services. This is targeting businesses that traditionally relied on FTL services connecting MX-Canada (west coast) and/or slower ocean transits connecting MX Gulf to Canada EC.
  • [Ocean – U.S. exports] TAEB: Rates are rising out of Houston to north Europe base ports related to increased cargo routing through Houston via rail.
  • [Ocean Ports – USEC] Hurricane Lee is moving up the US East Coast and approaching Canada. Expect vessel arrival days as the storm passes each port. The Port of Halifax, Canada, is closely monitoring the storm. Vessel delays to the port are highly likely.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] September capacity overall at ~85%, a 5% increase from August and the 2nd highest month for total capacity this year. No further drop in capacity for September is expected. Vessel plans will remain in lead up to Golden Week (1 October) Golden Week closures expected to begin September 25/26, with most factories closed Sept 23 – Oct 8.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Flexport Launches a Revolution to Democratize Supply Chain for Entrepreneurs

This week, Flexport launched a supply chain revolution for entrepreneurs, the first truly all-in-one tool and end-to-end global trade solution powering instant access to financing, freight, fulfillment, and replenishment to all major marketplaces and retail stores. Those who want even more can join Flexport+, a membership program offering exclusive access to industry-leading supply chain financing, priority shipping services, and easy access to supply chain experts for heightened support.

NRF acquires Reverse Logistics Association

In a move to help its members establish and meet full-circle sustainability goals, The National Retail Federation (NRF) recently announced it had acquired the Reverse Logistics Association (RLA). With the continued growth in consumer demand for a true circular economy and visibility into what happens to goods after return, the NRF says they’re now better positioned than ever to support their members in meeting these demands as well as assisting with the growing issue of returns fraud.

 

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: September 6, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Ocean – LATAM Northbound] ONE has introduced their new service, the FLX service, which will call at: Callao – Paita – Guayaquil – Cartagena – Port Everglades – Puerto Cortes – Cartagena.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Carriers continue blank sailing programs as import volumes remain uncertain. This could put a space crunch into the market as we approach Golden Week.
  • [Ocean – ISC>N. America] Operations have normalized across ports in northwestern India. Overall demand is down YoY in terms of the value of goods shipped. Volume in terms of TEU down ~14% Jan – July YoY. Watch for blank sailings in September due to lower demand from India to southeast U.S. ports such as Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk.
  • [Regional – LATAM] Brazil exports are on the rise and GRIs are being implemented by all major ocean carriers. We expect volume to continue increasing into Q4 and recommend booking 4+ weeks ahead of sailing.
  • [Regional – U.S.] Rain in the US Southwest continues to impact rail and road traffic. Shipments moving from California ports into the Southwest and Texas can expect to see 2-3 day delays in transit times. We are keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Lee which formed in the Atlantic and is forecast to become a major Hurricane. Earliest impacts to shipping would be the end of next week.
  • [Air – Mode update] Air cargo volumes have continued to decrease through the year, narrowing to their lowest level as of July. This indicates that the market is showing signs of bottoming out, though analysts say that strengthening demand shows reason to be cautiously optimistic.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
ILWU Ratifies 6-Year Contract

With a 75% majority, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) ratified a new 6-year contract with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) this week. The contract will retroactively start on July 1, 2022 (when the previous contract expired) and extends through July 1, 2028. The ratification comes at the end of a 13-month process that included labor actions, fears of a strike that could have severely hampered the U.S. supply chain, and multiple rounds of negotiations between the two parties. The contract affects 22,000 dock workers at 29 ports up and down the U.S. West Coast.

Chatbots Are Trying to Figure Out Where Your Shipments Are

Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November of last year, more companies have started investigating ways to use Generative AI, the technology that powers this and other recently launched tools, in their customer service and other public-facing aspects of their business. Artificial intelligence has been making its way into the backend of the industry for several years already, but the ability of generative AI to quickly parse data and respond to humans in a human-like manner has companies looking at ways to lighten the workload on their external-facing employees as well.

 

Source from Flexport.com

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墨西哥上调392个项目进口关税，90%产品高达25%

2023年8月15日，墨西哥总统签署法令，自8月16日起，上调钢铁、铝、竹制品、橡胶、化工产品、油、肥皂、纸张、纸板、陶瓷制品、玻璃、电气设备、乐器和家具等多种进口产品的最惠国关税。
该法令将适用于392个关税项目的进口关税提高。这些关税项目中的几乎所有产品现在都适用于25%的进口关税，只有某些纺织品将适用于15%的关税。这一进口关税率的修改于2023年8月16日生效，将于2025年7月31日结束。

关于在法令中列出的具有反倾销税的产品中，来自中国和中国台湾地区的不锈钢；中国、韩国的冷轧板；中国和中国台湾地区的涂层扁钢以及来自韩国、印度和乌克兰的无缝钢管等进口都将受到这一关税增加的影响。
该法令将影响墨西哥与其非自由贸易协定贸易伙伴之间的贸易关系和货物流动，其中影响最大的国家和地区包括巴西、中国、中国台湾地区、韩国和印度。但是，与墨西哥有自由贸易协定(FTA)的国家不受这项法令影响。
由于此次关税上调预先毫无征兆，并且墨西哥官方公告语言为西班牙语，以墨西哥为出口市场和转移投资目的国的中国企业，将会受到相当程度的冲击。
墨西哥是中国在拉美地区的第二大贸易伙伴；中国是墨西哥全球第二大贸易伙伴。两国经贸合作潜力巨大。自2018年开始的中美经贸摩擦以来，全球供应链发生了深刻的转变。CPTPP和USMCA等区域自贸政策安排，也促动中国企业对墨西哥进行日益提升的跨境转移投资。墨西哥上调对华进口关税，不利于墨西哥承接中国的产业和供应链转移。
近92%产品征收25关税，哪些产品受影响最大

根据我国海关总署发布的相关数据统计，中国对墨西哥商品出口从2018年至2020年间的440亿～460亿美元的水平，增至2021年的669亿美元，2022年进一步增至773亿美元；2023年上半年，中国对墨西哥商品出口金额已经超过392亿美元，与2020年以前的数据相比，出口增幅近180%。根据海关数据筛选，墨西哥法令所列的392个税号涉及的出口金额约为62.3亿美元（以2022年数据为基础，考虑到中墨海关税号存在一定的差异，实际受影响的金额暂时无法精确统计）。

其中，进口关税税率调增分为5%，10%，15%，20%和25%五档，但有实质性影响的，集中在“8708项下挡风玻璃及其他车身附件”（10%）、“纺织品”（15%）和“钢铁、铜铝贱金属、橡胶、化工产品、纸类、陶瓷产品、玻璃、电器材料、乐器和家具等”（25%）等产品大类上。

392个税号共涉及我国海关税则类别的13个大类，受影响最大的依次是“钢铁及钢铁制品”、“塑料和橡胶”、“运输设备及零件”、“纺织”和“家具杂项”。这五大类在2022年对墨出口金额占总出口金额的86%。这五大类产品也是近年来中国对墨出口增长明显的产品类别。此外，机械器具、铜镍铝和其他贱金属及制品、鞋帽、玻璃陶瓷、纸类、乐器及零件、化工、宝石贵金属也比2020年有不同程度增长。

以我国对墨西哥出口的汽车零配件为例，据不完全统计（中、墨税则不完全对应），此次墨西哥政府调整的392个税号中，2022年与汽车产业相关的税号商品，中国对墨出口额占当年中国对墨出口总额的32%，达19.62亿美元；而2023年上半年同类汽车产品对墨出口额达11.32亿美元。根据业内人士估计，中国在2022年平均每个月向墨西哥出口3亿美元汽车零部件。即2022年中国对墨西哥汽车零部件出口金额超过了36亿美元。二者的差异主要是因为还有相当一部分的汽车零部件税号，墨西哥政府此次没有纳入到进口税增加的范围内。

▼11月6-8日，货代两会-相约上海陆家嘴

中国海关统计数据显示，电子、工业机械、车辆及其零附件是墨西哥自中国进口的主要产品。其中，车辆及其零配件产品的增幅较为典型，2021年同比增长72%，2022年同比增长50%。从具体产品上看，2022年中国对墨西哥出口货运机动车辆（4位海关编码：8704）同比增长353.4%，2021年同比增长179.0%；机动车辆的车身（4位海关编码：8707）2022年同比增长165.5%，2021年同比增长119.8%；装有发动机的机动车辆底盘（4位海关编码：8706）2022年同比增长110.8%，2021年同比增长75.8%；等等。

须要警惕的是，墨西哥此份增加进口关税的法令，不适用于与墨西哥签订了贸易协定的国家和地区。从某种意义上说，这份法令，也是美国政府推行“友岸”供应链大策略（friendshoring）的一个最新体现。

全球汽车产业链紧密相连，中国汽车零部件供应商可以向墨西哥的任何海外公司供货。然而，墨西哥增加进口关税可能对中国汽车零部件出口企业产生较大影响。虽然美国正在采取措施削弱中国的影响力，中墨汽车贸易规模呈快速增长趋势，但不能简单地认定中国汽车产品出口墨西哥的目的是为了借道向美国出口。该观点只是美国通过《美墨加协定》来布局供应链的导向性作用。实际的贸易流动受到多种复杂因素的影响。

转载自“海运网”

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‘Rushed’ sourcing shift out of China prompts some reconsideration

SINGAPORE — “China plus-one,” “friend-shoring” and “reshoring” may be catchphrases of the day, with the underlying trends they describe being well-supported by macro-level trade data. But as sourcing shifts out of China due to risk mitigation and other factors, one thing is increasingly apparent: Moving production out of China is costly, even to the point of leading some to reconsider it.

 

The reality is that for any number of product categories, relocating sourcing brings with it less efficient logistics, occasional lower quality, and overall higher costs at a time when cost control is rapidly assuming a higher priority for shippers.

 

That is why some executives with long experience in Asia logistics believe that if factors like risk mitigation were to recede as an urgent supply chain priority — for example, if there were to be a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions — China could, at least in the short term, recapture lost manufacturing given the well-established efficiency and quality of its overall system.

 

“The short-term rush out of China has in some cases been too rushed and infrastructure/cost and capabilities were not ready to absorb the business from China and thus if there were immediate changes in China; some of that would likely come back as an interim step,” said a senior Asia-based forwarding executive.

 

However, “two to three years more of fixing the bugs in the new countries will make that reversal much less likely,” he added, reflecting a view that diversification of supply firmly remains a long-term trend.

 

Still, it’s not happening without bumps in the road. According to anecdotes shared with the Journal of Commerce by a freight forwarder, such frustrations led a white goods manufacturer who had a pre-COVID sourcing split of roughly 40% Thailand, 33% Vietnam and 17% China to “actually (go) back to China for a significant amount of sourcing.”

 

Three specific reasons were cited: a more dependable supply chain for raw materials and parts, less tangled transportation solutions out of Asia, and sourcing capacity – especially following the surge in demand during the pandemic.

 

Issues in Vietnam led a footwear and apparel maker to acknowledge the pain associated with transitioning from a 57% China/29% Vietnam split to 45% China/35% Vietnam today. “Ocean capacity is a major issue,” for the shipper, the forwarder said.

 

“From a transportation and lead time angle, [the company was] much better off in Xiamen, which can boast over five times [the] direct call capacity than Haiphong.”

 

A seller of artificial Christmas trees, meanwhile, was sourcing 93% of its product from China as of 2019, but as of 2023 is sourcing 58% from China and 41% from Cambodia. However, the forwarder said, “they do not see a further shift away from China as they also cited capacity and supply chain efficiencies from China were still far superior than those in Cambodia.”

 

“Not surprisingly, priority [purchase orders] … are still coming from China as they do not have enough confidence that the factory, infrastructure or transportation options from Cambodia can deliver consistently,” the forwarder source added. “Also worth noting that as a result of the shift, this particular importer has had to push up its shipping program for Christmas trees, and rather significantly at that.”

 

Sourcing shift comes with new costs 

 

A study prepared for the annual US Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium held from Aug. 24-26 found that moving production out of China brought additional cost.

 

“Decreases in product-level import shares from China are associated with rising unit values for imports from Vietnam and Mexico, which likely reflects rising costs of production in these locations,” the study concluded. “This ongoing reallocation of global supply chain activity comes attached with costs that need to be monitored and assessed more rigorously.”

 

Part of the additional cost stems from less-efficient logistics, including fewer direct connections that result in more frequent transshipments, as well as chronically congested terminals and inland connectors. Sources say companies buying from factories are likely to experience more problems than large industrial companies that make a long-term commitment to a new market by establishing their own production and associated supply chains.

 

Part of the underlying issue is that transportation infrastructure is well known to be far less developed throughout Southeast Asia, even if it’s expanding rapidly across the region. According to maritime consultancy Drewry, as of 2022, 76 container terminals in China were able to handle ships greater than 14,000 TEUs, while there were only 31 across south and southeast Asia. China is the only country in the world to have built significant container port capacity ahead of demand, while in other developing countries new terminals fill up almost immediately after they open.

 

One example of divergent levels of efficiency is berth productivity, measuring how quickly terminals load and offload ships. China and Singapore have the most productive ports in the region, with ports in other countries, including the Philippines, Myanmar and Bangladesh generating substantially lower productivity, contributing to vessel delays and larger supply chain disruption, according to Port Performance data from S&P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce.

 

“Building redundancy into supply chains isn’t costless,” economist Marc Levinson, author of The Box and a scheduled TPM24 speaker, told the Journal of Commerce. “If a manufacturer makes a product in two or three countries rather than in one location, it may lose economies of scale, and its supply chain logistics get more complicated.”

/ By COH Marketing / Market Update（EN） • 市场动向(中文)/ 0 Comments

Freight Market Update: August 30, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – U.S. Gulf Coast] Hurricane IDALIA is causing disruptions in the Southeast. Flights from Tampa and Jacksonville are canceled today (August 30th) and the ports of Tampa, Jacksonville, Charleston, and Savannah are all closed. Expect ports to reopen 24-36 hours after storm passage, if it is safe to do so.
  • [Regional – East Asia] Super Typhoon Saola is currently centered north of Luzon. The storm will move northwest-westward through Luzon Strait through the 31st while maintaining its intensity as a super typhoon. While Saola is not currently expected to make landfall in Taiwan or Southeast China there will be significant weather impacts across the region.
  • [Trucking – Mexico] A nationwide strike has been averted for now as officials from the Mexican Alliance of Carrier Organizations (AMOTAC) have agreed to sit down with federal officials. The scheduled action would have ground trucking to a halt across Mexico, as well as impacting cross-border traffic into and out of the U.S.
  • [Rail – U.S.] Norfolk Southern has said that the impacts of a recent outage could last for several weeks, though no shutdown is expected. A spokesperson said there were no indications of a cyberattack, though the cause of Monday’s outage is still under investigation.
  • [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Indications of a rate increase on the Indian to U.S. East Coast lane have been announced within the market. Space is largely available to the East Coast, while the West Coast remains tight as these services are shared with the Transpacific market and are seeing an uptick in demand.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Wind-Powered Cargo Ship Sets Sail in a Move To Make Shipping Greener

In the race to uncover ways to lower the carbon footprint of the global shipping industry, a new project called Wind Wings stands to make an outsized impact. The project, a combined effort of UK-based BAR Technologies, Cargill, and the European Union, among others—retrofits steel and glass composite sails onto existing freighters. These high-tech versions of an old-school sail stand to cut fuel use by 1.5 metric tons per wing, per day on an average ocean route.

Panama Canal Delays Have Shippers Mulling Freight Diversions

The ongoing delays at the Panama Canal due to drought conditions in the region are causing some shippers to seek alternative routes to get their inventory to its destination. This may mean sending goods destined for the East Coast of the U.S. to ports on the West Coast then using roads and rail to finish the journey. Or it may mean sending containers on ships heading through the Suez Canal, despite the possibility of longer lead times and higher upfront costs.

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 23, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Intermodal – U.S.] Rainfall from Hurricane Hilary has caused the closure of the Union Pacific and BNSF mainline rail between Southern California and Texas. The railroads expect service to be restored by 8/25 but shippers should expect additional delays as rail operations return to normal.
  • [U.S. Exports – TPWB/TAEB] Overall demand remains soft, with carriers not eyeing a bounce back until late Q1’24. Rates continue to be aggressively priced by carriers in order to fill ships as capacity remains broadly available.
  • [Ocean – FEWB] Demand remains flat—high inflation, high inventories, rising energy costs, and geopolitical instability are still impacting the demand on the European side. Carriers are eyeing a potential GRI for sometime in September, and more blank sailings and sliding vessels have been announced for next month as well.
  • [Ocean – LATAM Southbound] Exports overall remain down and ocean carriers have continued to proactively reduce FAK rates in the hopes of attracting new business.
  • [Ocean – LATAM Northbound] Brazil’s peak season usually kicks off in Q3 and although volumes are not at the same level as last year, vessel utilization has started to increase. As a result the three main ocean carriers (CMA, ZIM, MSC) have announced and/or implemented a GRI.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Panama Canal Extends Transit Restrictions Through Sept. 2

The Panama Canal Authority said last week that current restrictions on vessel draft and the number of vessels granted transit daily will remain in place until at least Sept. 2, 2023. Those restrictions are a maximum allowed draft of 44 feet, or 13.41 meters, and 32 vessels per day. Those passages are divided into categories, with 14 vessels with reservations per day in the original locks (only suitable for smaller cargo ships) and 10 in the newer, larger locks. The remaining eight spots are given to vessels without reservations.

What Was Once a Weed Could Fuel Jet Engines

Biomass fuels, or fuels created by processing plant matter, are a growing area of interest for those involved in addressing the carbon footprint of the global supply chain (like Flexport’s Flexport.org division). And as interest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) grows, several companies are hoping their non-food crop oilseed plants will be the first step to a carbon-neutral supply chain. These so-called ‘cover crops’ are grown during fallow seasons in the same fields as other food crops like soy or corn. That allows farmers to maintain their fields while generating additional income, and the result is a product that many hope will usher in that more sustainable supply chain.

 

Source from Flexport.com

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Freight Market Update: August 16, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Ocean-TAWB] After dropping for several weeks, rates have stabilized below pre-pandemic numbers. Carriers will start trying to maintain healthy levels by managing capacity with possible blank sailings or slowing transit speeds in the coming weeks/months.
  • [Ocean-TPEB] Capacity is down from 648k TEU to 514k TEU, dropping but remaining close to the four week average of 525k.
  • [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Indian Subcontinent: No GRI has been announced for the second half of August. There are some reductions on Sri Lanka (LK) and Bangladesh (BD) origins as well as North West India to USEC. Be aware that monsoon season and a heatwave in Bangladesh may cause some operational delays at origin.
  • [Intermodal – Canada] Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) announced the addition of 1,000 53-foot refrigerated containers to its intermodal network, more than doubling their existing fleet and bringing more options to customers using their Mexico Midwest Express (MMX) Series premium intermodal service.
  • [Ocean – LANB] From the East Coast of South America, vessel utilization remains healthy and picking up right in time for peak season, while from the west utilization is low due to the saturation in the market. ONE will also be injecting capacity into the USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
How Canada’s West Coast Port Labor Negotiations Unfolded: A Timeline

After a bumpy process lasting five months, port workers in British Columbia have signed a tentative contract and operations are back to full speed ahead. In those months we’ve seen a 13-day strike, an illegal work stoppage, one voted-down proposed settlement, two tentative deals, and a federal intervention by the Canadian government. Now the focus has turned to rebuilding trust in a supply chain that has taken a financial beating during the uncertainties of the past months.

‘This Is Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better’: Panama Canal Pileup Due to Drought Reaches 154 Vessels

Wait times to transit the Panama Canal currently sit at 21 days, with 154 vessels waiting for their turn. The backup is due to restrictions put in place by the Panama Canal Authority as a result of ongoing drought conditions that began last spring and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Some sectors have already begun rerouting through the Atlantic Basin or shifting back to U.S. West Coast ports, after having shifted to the East Coast earlier in the year due to labor issues.

 

Source from Felxport.com

/ By COH Marketing / Market Update（EN） • 市场动向(中文)/ 0 Comments

Freight Market Update: August 9, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – Canada] A majority of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada membership ratified the latest deal, signaling an end to the ongoing labor disputes of the past few months. Any remaining backlog is expected to be clear of the ports in the coming weeks. Please reach out to your account team if you have questions about your shipments.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern Korea tomorrow, August 10. The storm is expected to impact both air and ocean operations in the region, with the port of Busan expected to see impacts beginning the night of the 9th and lasting at least through the 11th.
  • [Ocean – All] Driven by the strength of U.S. consumer spending trends and ongoing reductions in capacity, carriers have announced another round of GRIs across all lanes to begin August 15.
  • [Ocean – FEWB] Demand on this lane remains soft but is picking up, vessel utilization is improving, index pricing has stabilized, and more blank sailings have been announced.
  • [Trucking – U.S./Can] Cross-border market conditions remain soft, with rates continuing to drop. Shippers should anticipate reasonable rates and strong service on all freight to continue at least through the near term.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
In the Freight Business, It Feels Like a Recession [AUDIO]

With falling rates and rising costs, the U.S. trucking industry is feeling some pains after three years of increasing demand, decreasing driver pools, and other pandemic-induced effects. “When you had that surge in prices, people responded to it and thought, ‘How can we supply more?’” said Flexport Chief Economist Phil Levy. “And that wrong-footed a lot of people in the business, because they had prepared for a continuing boom,” Levy said.

What’s Working For — and Against — Retailers Heading Into the Holidays?

In an industry that relies heavily on historical data trends to forecast upcoming cycles, this year’s upcoming holiday season presents a new set of conflicting scenarios. Working in its favor are the facts that inflation is down, consumer sentiment is up, a UPS strike was averted, and consumers are itching to get back to ‘normal.’ On the flip side we see that those same consumers are hungry for bargains, the end of student loan deferrals is looming, and political/social unrest still threatens some decisions retailers make on where to focus their efforts.

Source from Flexport.com

/ By COH Marketing / Market Update（EN） • 市场动向(中文)/ 0 Comments

Freight Market Update: August 2, 2023

Trends to Watch

  • [Regional – British Columbia] A third tentative agreement has been reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada and the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA)—with a vote scheduled for Friday. As the situation continues to be fast-changing, please reach out to your account representative for the latest information on potential impacts to your shipments.
  • [Regional – Panama Canal] As of July 30, daily capacity at the Panama Canal has been lowered to roughly 32 vessels per day (10 vessels allowed in the Neopanamax lock and 22 in the Panamax lock) with potential for even steeper adjustments depending on future weather forecasts and other factors.
  • [Ocean – TPEB] Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles will be closed Thursday, August 3 while members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) meet to discuss the status of contract negotiations.
  • [Regional – East Asia] As of writing, Typhoon Khanun is centered west of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to gradually move west-northwestward into the East China Sea through Thursday the 3rd. Port impacts are possible, please check with your account representative for updated info on potential impact on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News
Why Supply Chain Execs Should Watch the U.S. Housing Market

In this panel discussion with Supply Chain Dive, Flexport’s Chief Economist, Phil Levy, weighs in on the Federal Reserve’s attempt to control inflation since March of last year by increasing interest rates and how this puts a damper on the demand for personal consumer goods. He advises businesses to not overextend themselves and “watch the labor market and whether core inflationary measures are moving significantly downwards.”

Could Generative AI Solve Fashion’s Excess Stock Problems?

Advocates for generative AI believe that focusing on building the proper foundations of data science and machine learning now will pave the way for an easy-to-use generative AI-powered supply chain in the future. AI, in its current state, has already transformed supply chain management through more accurate demand forecasting, more insightful data analyses, and faster decision-making. But generative AI has the potential to take these benefits one step further by speeding up the inventory management process, for example, and solving present and future supply chain challenges.

 

Source from Flexport.com