Trends to Watch

[Canada Railroad Strikes]

• Nearly 10,000 Canadian rail workers represented by the Teamsters Union may strike early next week, pending a ruling by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on Friday, August 9.
• The dispute involved the Canadian National Railway Company (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC), over issues related to working conditions, wages, and fatigue management.
• Canadian railways transported half of the country’s exports in 2022, totaling more than $276 billion dollars’ worth of goods, according to the Railway Association of Canada.
• A strike or lockout could greatly affect both imports and exports in Canada. Importers and exporters looking to get cargo moving will need to resort to other modes of transport to move their goods. The CIRB will determine what essential services, if any, will be required to move if a stoppage of work goes into effect.
• Significant impacts could be felt across many industries, including the agriculture sector, an industry that relies heavily on rail to transport goods.
• Moving goods within the country would be primarily supported by transloading, and trucking goods to final destinations. These solutions would be costly and time-consuming, however, and are not a long-term strategy for most importers. Both CN and CPKC are firmly committed to reaching a negotiated agreement that prevents any work stoppage.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on the Transpacific route. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC).
• Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’ve seen less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW), from China’s main ports.
• A positive note: water levels at the Gatun Lake in Panama have recovered, and local authorities have softened the Panama Canal’s weight restrictions.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have continued to decrease spot rates to the EC, WC, and the Gulf Coast to match supply and demand. A General Rate Increase (GRI) has been announced for the second half of August.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• THE Alliance announced three more void plans for September due to vessel delays, continuously impacting available capacity in the market.
• Demand for the last week of August and early September has slowed down a bit, compared to the June and July market. Floating rates remain on the higher side, and with blank sailings in place, the outlook for space remains tight.
• Long-term named account business remains restricted by carriers for space and equipment priority.
• Equipment shortages have ceased a bit since May and June. For some port of loadings (POLs) with less direct calling, we still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs.
• For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend selecting premium options as soon as possible for an earlier estimated time of departure (ETD) and space with higher equipment priority.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• The congestion in the Mediterranean and North Europe, along with schedule reliability issues and blank sailings, remains the same, leading to increased rates for September 1st.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue. At German ports, there are no further strikes expected so far.
• Of primary concern is the potential strike in the U.S.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings ex North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings ex Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Capacity has tightened from the U.S. to the Indian subcontinent, Middle Eastern ports, and North European ports, related to vessel omissions and blank sailings. Service strings relying on feeder services to final ports of discharge (PODs) are losing capacity as the appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lanes.
• Continual changes to earliest return dates (ERDs) present ongoing challenges for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] Air Freight Update Mon 22 July – Sun 28 July 2024 (Week 30)(Source: WorldACD)

• Worldwide tonnage stability and regional variations: Worldwide air cargo tonnages remained stable in the last week of July after a -2% decline the previous week, with an overall -5% decrease compared to the end of June. Tonnages from four of the six main world regions fell, with Central and South America seeing a -4% decline and the Asia-Pacific, North America, and Africa each experiencing a -1% drop. Meanwhile, Europe and MESA saw increases of +2% and +1%, respectively.
• Impact of Bangladesh disruptions: Between weeks 28 and 29, tonnages from Bangladesh to Europe fell by -29% due to political protests and internet blackouts. In week 30, they rebounded by +6%. Weeks 29 and 30 were both down by around -50% year-on-year (YoY).
• Year-on-year tonnage growth trends: Worldwide tonnages for week 30 exhibited a +6% YoY increase, which remains below the +12% average for the first half of 2024. Combined, weeks 29 and 30 demonstrated a +7% YoY increase, indicating a potential slowdown. Preliminary July estimates predict a YoY increase of +9% to +10%.
• Air cargo rates: Global rates fell slightly by -1% in week 30, but remained stable on a two-week basis (2Wo2W). Compared to last year, rates increased by +13% YoY, with significant rises from MESA (+55%) and the Asia-Pacific (+24%). Average worldwide rates are +45% higher than pre-COVID levels (July 2019).
• Significant regional rate increases: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. decreased by -3% in week 30, but are still up +62% YoY. Rates from Singapore to the U.S. surpassed $9 per kilo—more than double last year’s levels. Rates from MESA to Europe have more than doubled YoY, with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, and Dubai seeing some of the highest increases due to strong demand and limited capacity.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators maintain downward trends for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast, and remain stable for China to Europe.

Week to August 5, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have accelerated their downward trends for the third week in a row, falling from 60.5 to 58 days and 39.5 to 38 days, respectively, due to extended COGH transit times and existing port congestion across Asia and the U.S. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to Northern Europe has remained stable for the past two weeks, at 68 days.

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’ve seen less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW), from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand. We’ve seen shipping lines try to stabilize rates for the second half of August by introducing an early General Rate Increase (GRI) announcement.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK rates and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Port congestion in Asia is improving, but overall on-time performance for Asia-Europe trade remains suboptimal due to reroutings via the Cape of Good Hope. Blank sailings will continue in August. A few extra loaders have been injected into the FEWB to compensate for downsized vessels, and to maintain schedule reliability.
• Demand is strong, and floating rates remain on the higher end. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped slightly over the past two weeks. With blank sailings in place, we’re expecting the floating market to remain critical.
• Long-term named account space remains limited and restricted by carriers for space and equipment priority.
• Equipment shortages have improved a bit since May and June. For some Port of Loadings (POLs) with less direct calling, we still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs.
• Port congestion in Netherlands/Belgium, coupled with on-and-off strikes in Germany and France, has impacted terminal operations and last-mile deliveries. We recommend closely monitoring container movements.
• For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend selecting premium options as early as possible for an earlier estimated time of departure (ETD) and space with higher equipment priority.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• North Europe: Carriers have begun noticing the effects of reduced capacity due to full vessels. Demand remains stable, and some factories on the Northwest of the continent are closed for the months of July and August.
• Congestion in the Mediterranean region remains, with an average wait time of 4-7 days outside of the main ports of Italy and Spain. Also, strikes at ports in Southern Italy have exerted more pressure on certain services. The effects are now being felt in the East Mediterranean, where rates are increasing.
• North Europe: Yang Ming Line announced a GRI for the 1st of September. Mediterranean Shipping Company and Ocean Network Express are considering applying for a PSS in September. The intention is to stop rate deterioration.
• Mediterranean: Carriers already increased their rates for August. No news about new increases in September.
• We expect to see signs of the usual slack season in August starting next week.

[Ocean U.S. Exports]

• Capacity from the Southeastern U.S. has tightened routes to the Indian subcontinent, Middle Eastern ports, and North European ports, amid vessel omissions and blank sailings.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final Port of Discharge (POD) are losing capacity as appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• Challenges related to earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to persist for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking two weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the COGH, and rising demand have caused freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as yet-to-deploy capacity faces delays around the COGH.
• Large rollover pools have added further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use spot market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• India port issues: Two top ports, Nhava Sheva and Mundra, are facing terminal congestion issues due to heavy rainfall in Mundra, increased volume, and sliding/bunched sailing schedules. Carriers have resorted to early vessel gate closures to properly manage yard utilization and vessel loadings.
• Bangladesh backlog: Due to political protests in Bangladesh, there is a substantial backlog accumulating in the country. Vessels continue to work through this backlog, which is expected to further exacerbate ongoing congestion issues in Colombo, Sri Lanka. This is because over 50% of all cargo coming out of Bangladesh requires a transhipment in Colombo.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Global rate increases amid declining tonnages: Average global air cargo rates rose by +2% in the third week of July 2024 to $2.56 per kilo, despite a third consecutive week of worldwide tonnage declines. This rate is +14% higher than the same week last year, and +47% higher than pre-COVID levels in July 2019.
• Asia-Pacific rate surge: Spot rates from Asian-Pacific origins increased by +2% to $3.34 per kilo in week 29 (July 15-21), marking a +25% increase compared to the same week last year. The rate hike was driven by a +2% rise in average prices, despite a -2% week-on-week tonnage drop.
• Demand and rate dynamics to the U.S.: Rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. increased by +5% in week 29, with average spot prices exceeding $6 per kilo ($6.01), a +67% YoY rise. Chargeable weight from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. rose by +2% WoW and +8% YoY, although tonnages from China to the U.S. fell by -8% YoY.
• MESA to Europe trends: Demand from MESA origins to Europe, while still +15% higher than the same period last year, has cooled from the +30% to +50% levels we saw earlier in the year. Average spot rates from MESA to Europe in week 29 were $3.30 per kilo—more than double (+126%) their levels last year, with significant increases from Bangladesh (+178%), India (+161%), and Sri Lanka (+78%).

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators exhibit a downward trend for China to the U.S. West Coast, China to Europe, and China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 29, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 61 to 60.5 days and 40.5 to 39.5 days, respectively. The OTI for China to Northern Europe also decreased, dropping from 69.5 days to 68 days. The reason? Port congestion on all trade lanes is slightly improving.

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to the bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’re seeing less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW) from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand, with more significant pricing adjustments to the WC.
• Fixed rates: So far, shipping lines have not altered the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS), as the gap between NAC and FAK rates remains too large.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Volumes are very strong and exceed last year’s numbers on the FEWB. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia. A few extra loaders were injected into the FEWB in 2H July to compensate for downsized vessels and the extra transit time due to COGH routings.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to increase rate levels and are offering some extra space to adapt to supply and demand.
• Fixed rates: Named account allocation remains very limited. Carriers stopped offering new long-term rate offers back in May; they’re protecting existing named account customers that are performing on a regular basis and offering limited allocation cutbacks in August.
• Equipment situation: Carriers have improved equipment supply, but are still seeing some shortages, specifically for NAC. Carriers are prioritizing high-paying contracts.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In North Europe, demand is stable and rates are following the same trend. Rate levels are expected to remain stable until the end of September.
• In the Mediterranean, congestion and the delays are forcing blank sailings, which is driving 100% utilization across services. As a result, carriers are increasing rates (in the form of Peak Season Surcharges and General Rate Increases (GRIs)).
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings from North Europe, and 2-3 weeks for bookings from the Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the Cape of Good Hope, and increases in demand are causing freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as no new capacity will be deployed until mid-month.
• Large rollover pools are adding further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use Spot Market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• Unrest in Bangladesh: Due to political protests, origin stakeholders have had limited access to the internet, social media, and telecommunications. Due to continued unrest, the Bangladeshi government made 7/22 and 7/23 public holidays. Delays are expected.
• Sri Lanka de-prioritization: Due to ongoing terminal congestion and changing rate levels in neighboring countries, Colombo as a port of loading has been deprioritized with regard to its typical direct sailings. Most carriers are now skipping the direct Colombo call and opting for a transhipment over Singapore for all shipments. This has put pressure on South Indian, Bangladeshi, and Colombo shipments, which typically rely on Colombo as a transhipment hub or port of loading.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
  Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Slight decline in worldwide tonnages: In week 28 (July 8-14, 2024), there was a -1% drop in global air cargo tonnages, with Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Africa experiencing declines of -5%, -2%, and -5%, respectively. Meanwhile, North America and Central and South America saw increases of +6% and +4%, respectively.
• Decrease in average worldwide rates: The average worldwide air cargo rate decreased by -1% to $2.50 per kilo in week 28, which is still +11% higher year-on-year (YoY) and +44% higher than in July 2019. Asia-Pacific and MESA origins saw significant year-on-year rate increases of +23% and +51%, respectively.
• Spot rate analysis: Spot rates from various East Asian origins to Europe decreased in week 28, with Thailand and Taiwan experiencing drops of -16% and -11%, respectively. Conversely, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan saw increases in spot rates to Europe of +7%, +5%, and +3%, respectively, despite a -8% fall in tonnages from Hong Kong.
• Stable U.S. spot rates from the Asia-Pacific: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. remained stable in week 28, with significant year-on-year increases of +63% from China and +38% from other Asian-Pacific origins.
• MESA to Europe trends: High tonnages and price levels from MESA to Europe continue due to Red Sea disruptions. In week 28, MESA to Europe demand dropped by -7%, but spot rates remained substantially higher than last year’s rates, with Dubai, India, and MESA seeing respective increases of +17%, +82%, and +16% in tonnages, and spot rates up by +126% since last year. India to Europe spot rates were $3.49 per kilo, up +158% YoY, while Bangladesh to Europe rates held firm at $4.25 per kilo.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators stabilize for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, while decreasing for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 22, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 62 to 61 days and from 41 to 40.5 days, respectively. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to Northern Europe increased, rising from 69 days to 69.5 days. The reason? European port congestion is nearing pandemic highs, while previous delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope pose ongoing challenges.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Severe weather conditions around the COGH caused further delays and will add capacity challenges for the U.S. East Coast. Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we see less space pressure on the West Coast, specifically Pacific Southwest (PSW) from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: General Rate Increases (GRIs) for July were successfully implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on peak conditions from May onwards. Nevertheless, we noticed that shipping lines are starting to slightly reduce and adjust their West Coast / East Coast pricing to maintain full vessels and XL support.
• Fixed rates: Carriers shared the new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1, which marks an increase after two successful implementation rounds. No further PSS increase was shared for the second half of July, and we see an overall stabilization of rates.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Port congestion in Asia is improving, but on-time performance (less than 50%) remains below 2023 levels. Equipment is still tight in North China and Central China.
• Bookings remain strong, with July void sailing plans in place that impact total available market capacity.
• Floating rates rose again for the second half of July. THE Alliance will be back to near-full capacity in August. More to follow after the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is announced on July 19.
• Premium options are still available in the market to get cargo loaded on earlier departure dates with higher equipment priority, mitigating the risk of rolling or no equipment.
• Port congestion in Europe, coupled with the strike in Germany and France, are impacting terminal operations and last-mile delivery. We highly recommend communicating with Flexport to track container movements.
• Flexport continues to monitor the situation. We advise booking early, placing bookings in smaller slots, and picking up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend choosing premium options as early as possible.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Blank sailings in the Mediterranean will continue due to congestion and delays outside of West Mediterranean (WMED) ports.
• North Europe rates will remain stable for August and September.
• In the Mediterranean, certain carriers have announced increases beginning in early August due to fully utilized vessels and blank sailings.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings departing from North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings departing from the Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
• Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating the ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Global air cargo demand dropped by -5% in the first week of July, with a significant -13% decrease from North America, -8% from Central & South America, -4% from Europe, and -3% from the Asia-Pacific, primarily due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
• Year-on-year (YoY), worldwide tonnages increased by +11% in week 27 and +13% in weeks 26 and 27 combined, consistent with the figures for June and Q2 2024.
• Average worldwide air cargo rates in week 27 were $2.57 per kilo, a +2% increase from the previous week and a +14% rise YoY. These rates are +48% higher compared to July 2019 (pre-COVID levels).
• Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. saw significant YoY increases: +$5.72 per kilo (+68%), with China at $5.34 per kilo (+38%) and Hong Kong at $4.84 per kilo (+12%).
• Rates from Vietnam to the U.S. reached $6.62 per kilo (+147% YoY), Thailand at $6.46 per kilo, and Singapore at $7.02 per kilo, all exhibiting substantial increases. Rates from Japan to the U.S. are slightly above $6 per kilo, up +64% YoY.

[Canada Rail Strike Update] (Source: Trains.com)

• Bargaining between Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National Railway Co (CN), who are represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union, has resulted in disputes over rest periods between worker shifts.
• According to the union, the rail companies were attempting to remove rest provisions that are critical to safety.
  The Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) has informed CN that they intend to make a decision by August 9, 2024. A TCRC strike could begin 72 hours after a final ruling is made.
• A rail strike in Canada could prevent cargo from moving on rail from all major sea and inland port locations, directly affecting imports and exports into Canada via rail, apart from essentials.
• If a potential strike does go into effect, recommended solutions include transloading cargo at wet ports, diverting cargo to route via U.S. coastal ports for any cargo routing to the United States, and using east coast or all-water services to Montreal/Halifax to service Toronto and other major east coast cities.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators increase for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, while stabilizing for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 15, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast have plateaued, stabilizing at 62 days and concluding an increase that began in April 2024. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to the U.S. West Coast increased from 40 to 41 days. Last but not least, China to Northern Europe OTIs also rose from 66.5 to 69 days due to port congestion nearing pandemic highs, as well as delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope this past week.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – Extreme Weather Alert]

• Vessels have resumed transiting around the Cape of Good Hope, following the extreme weather in the region earlier. Wave heights have reduced to 23-26 feet and are expected to continue decreasing. Estimated arrival times for vessels have been delayed by 24-48 hours, and some vessel bunching may occur at ports globally.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, surpassing last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. However, structurally blank sailings have occurred due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. We see more premium offerings from shipping lines with expedited services and equipment and space guarantees, while other carriers try to reduce the backlog in Asia with extra loader (XL) space. With XL space to the Pacific Southwest (PSW), the situation is improving week over week, while the East Coast (EC) remains heavily overbooked.
• Floating rates: The General Rate Increase (GRI) for July was successfully implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on the peak conditions we’re seeing this month. Shipping lines adjusted rates to the EC twice as much as to the West Coast (WC) to manage the massive booking intake. We’re seeing the first signs that rates will get extended into the second half of July.
• Fixed rates: Carriers shared the new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1, marking another increase after two successful implementation rounds. We’re expecting that the PSS will get extended into the second half of July.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Equipment shortages and port congestion in Asia are improving, but on-time performance still falls short of 50% (per the latest Sea-Intelligence report). There are 10 blank sailings announced for Asia-North Europe in the second half of July and August.
• Floating rates rose again for the second half of July (by $500-800 per 40-foot container). Vessels remain full as the capacity cuts and bookings kick in, and customers are still looking for earlier estimated times of departure (ETDs) to mitigate cargo delays.
• Premium options are still available for getting cargo loaded on earlier departure dates with higher equipment priority, which can mitigate the risk of rolling or no equipment.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• The congestion in the Mediterranean, along with schedule reliability issues and blank sailings, remains the same, leading to increased rates for July.
• North Europe demand has not been affected by the reduced capacity, and the majority of carriers are extending their rate levels until the end of Q3.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings Ex. North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings ex Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
• Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating the ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD and TAC Index)

• Global tonnages (+10%) and rates (+9%) continue to show strong YoY improvements, driven by the Red Sea crisis and e-commerce. That said, there are major differences across trade lanes.
• Continuous rate increases in Asia (+18% YoY) and the Indian subcontinent (+55% YoY) over the past 5 weeks have been driven by ocean to air conversions.
• American and European export rates declined YoY due to additional passenger capacity (passenger travel is on the rise).
• Rates from major China hubs have slowly but continuously creeped up since Q1, reaching more than $6/kg at quarter-end in June. They should stabilize in July (a slow ecommerce season), then ramp back up in September.
• Rates have risen dramatically from Southeast Asia origins, particularly Vietnam, driven by increased demand (ocean to air conversions) and congestion at major CN/HK hubs due to e-commerce. Express shipments from Vietnam reached > $10/kg at quarter-end.
• Rates from the Indian Subcontinent remain elevated, with backlogs at most major Indian airports and severe congestion in Bangladesh.
• Ecommerce players expect a strong peak season with 20-30% more volume (and up to 60% more volume in the weeks leading up to Black Friday).
• Traditional shippers are expecting strong Q4 sales. In particular, we expect strong volumes from Apple launches (the iPhone 16 contains a number of new features).
• Capacity is largely sold out from Asia for Q4 2024. Most Asian carriers are sold out of their ad hoc charter capacity until the end of the year, and sold > 85% of scheduled capacity. European, U.S., and Middle Eastern carriers (including Flexport on our own charters) have sold > 80% of their fixed capacity already, only setting aside space for profitable spots.
• Flexport advises that shippers reserve capacity as soon as possible. Focus on forwarders that have strong Block Space Agreements (BSAs) and a solid charter base to mitigate delays, be flexible with booking sizes, and explore creative routing for cargo that can wait.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Webinars

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, July 11 at 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators explore a new trajectory for Europe while returning to former patterns for U.S.-bound routes.

Week to July 8, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast continues its ascent after its first decrease in 6 weeks, going from 59 days to 62 days. In a similar upturn, the OTI for China to the U.S. West Coast also increased from 38.5 days to 40 days. Last but not least, China to Northern Europe OTIs also began rising, with a small uptick from 66 days to 66.5 days due to port congestion nearing pandemic highs, and also delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope.

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong and exceed last year’s numbers on the Transpacific route, despite structurally blank sailings caused by Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Shipping lines are offering more services, including expedited service and equipment and space guarantees, while other carriers are attempting to reduce the backlog in Asia with extra loader (XL) space. Due to XL space en route to the Pacific Southwest (PSW), we see that the situation is improving week over week, although the East Coast (EC) is still heavily overbooked.
• Floating rates: All General Rate Increases (GRIs) for June have been implemented, with further rounds expected for all Transpacific Eastbound gateways due to peak conditions anticipated in July. Shipping lines will adjust rates to the EC twice as much as to the West Coast (WC) to manage high booking volumes.
• Fixed rates: Carriers have announced the new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1st, marking another increase after two successful implementation rounds earlier this year.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Equipment shortages have become severe in most of Asia’s main loading ports. Liners are repositioning empty containers to improve the situation, but with continued vessel delays caused by rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, we foresee these issues persisting in the coming weeks.
• Port congestion in Asia is easing, though shippers still face an additional 2-3 days in berthing lead time.
• Demand remains stronger than usual, with rates rising again in the first half of July (a $1,500-2000 increase per 40-foot container). Due to equipment shortages, we expect that customers will keep pushing cargo out to avoid further delays. Liners are announcing blank sailings for July & August already, expecting that market space will remain critical in the coming weeks.
• Shippers are pushing for earlier cargo departures to avoid further freight cost increases. Unless space has already been secured, all vessels are currently full. To expedite cargo departures and avoid delays, more carriers are open to premium options to get cargo loaded on the first available departure date with higher equipment priority.
• Flexport is continuing to monitor the situation and advises booking early, placing bookings in smaller slots, and picking up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend choosing premium options as early as possible.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In North Europe, demand is stable, and carriers are extending their rate levels until August and September. However, there are equipment issues in Southern and Eastern Germany and the Hinterlands, including Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, and Switzerland.
• In the West Mediterranean, congestion and equipment issues at certain main ports, coupled with reduced schedule reliability, are impacting the market. Carriers are implementing increases starting in July, as demand picks up.
• The East Mediterranean is also experiencing the effects of congestion in Mediterranean ports. Some carriers have announced equipment imbalance and operational charges in response to increased costs along the Mediterranean to U.S. routes, as well as equipment availability issues in certain areas of Turkey, Greece, and Egypt.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2-3 weeks in advance.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in the broader U.S. export market, driven by rising rates in global container markets.
• Congested key destination transhipment hubs for U.S. exporters include ports in Asia and the Mediterranean.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for coastal port loadings, and 4+ weeks in advance for inland rail point loadings.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD)

• From January to May 2024, total worldwide chargeable weight was up by 12% year over year (YoY), driven by strong growth in cross-border e-commerce and sea-to-air conversions.
• General cargo growth: General cargo air freight tonnages rose by 13% YoY in the first five months of 2024, surpassing the 10% growth in special cargo.
• Regional performance: The Asia-Pacific and Middle East and South Asia (MESA) regions experienced significant YoY increases in chargeable weight, with the Asia-Pacific up 20% and MESA up 22%, both driven by strong cross-border e-commerce and sea-to-air conversions.
• Product category trends: Vulnerable/high-tech cargo and meat shipments grew by 25% each. Dangerous goods and pharma/temperature-controlled traffic grew by only 2% and 1%, respectively. Fish and seafood shipments declined by 1%, and live animal shipments dropped by 7%.
• Rate stability: Air cargo rates are holding firm at an average of $2.51 per kilo, up 8% YoY and 42% above pre-COVID levels, driven by strong demand and high spot rates from Asian and Middle Eastern origins.
• Market dynamics: Despite a 2% slip in worldwide tonnages in mid-June, a two-week comparison shows a 1% rise in both rates and tonnages, with significant rate increases on lanes such as Asia Pacific-USA and China-USA, and a notable impact from canceled freighters from China to LAX.
• Capacity platforms: Freighters showed weaker growth (+6% YoY) than passenger aircraft and mixed fleets, both of which grew by 13% in the first five months of 2024.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators Remain Stagnant or Decrease Across All Major Trade Lanes

Week to June 24, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast decreased for the first time in 6 weeks, falling to 58 days. China to the U.S. West Coast OTI also decreased to 37 days. China to Northern Europe OTI remained stagnant at 67 days due to routing around the Cape of Good Hope.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain very strong and exceed last year’s numbers on the Transpacific route, despite structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. We’re seeing more premium offerings from shipping lines, featuring expedited services and guaranteed equipment and space, while other carriers attempt to reduce the backlog in Asia with extra loader space.
• Floating rates: All General Rate Increases (GRIs) for June have been maintained, with further rounds to be implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways, based on the peak conditions anticipated for June and July. Carriers expect these rate hikes to persist and accelerate in the short term, as vessels departing Asia are expected to be full through June. The Pacific Southwest is at full capacity, while the Pacific Northwest will be near full capacity by the end of month and into July. The route from Vietnam and South/East China (Yantian/Shanghai/Ningbo) to the Pacific Southwest is particularly tight.
• Fixed rates: Carriers successfully raised the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on June 15, with additional increases already announced for July.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Equipment shortages have become severe in most of Asia’s main loading ports. Liners are repositioning empty containers to improve the situation, but with the continued delays on vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, we foresee this issue persisting in the coming weeks.
• Port congestion in Asia remains high due to elevated yard utilization, unexpected bad weather, and vessel bunching, leading to low terminal operation efficiency and long wait times. This situation has led to last-minute port omissions by carriers trying to catch up with transit timing.
• The port strikes at Bremerhaven, Hamburg, and Le Havre have not affected schedules yet, but hinterland networks are at risk of delays. Clients importing cargo to Germany and France should closely monitor deliveries, as the strikes could extend into July if the unions do not receive a satisfactory response from the government to their demands.
• Demand continues to be stronger than usual, and rates rose again for the second half of June ($1,500-2000 increase per 40-foot container). With equipment shortages, customers are likely to keep pushing cargo out to avoid further delays. Liners are preparing for the next General Rate Increase in the first half of July by another $1000 per 40-foot container.
• Shippers are pushing cargo for earlier departures to avoid further freight cost increases. Unless space has already been secured, all vessels are full. To push cargo out at earlier estimated times of departure (ETD) and avoid delays, more carriers are open to premium options to get cargo loaded on the first available departure date with higher equipment priority.
• Flexport continues to monitor the situation and advises booking early, placing bookings in smaller slots, and picking up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, it is recommended to opt for the premium option as early as possible.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In Northern Europe, demand remains stable, and carriers are responding by extending their rate levels until July.
• There are equipment issues in Southern and Eastern Germany and the Hinterlands (Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Switzerland).
• In the Western Mediterranean (WMED), congestion and equipment issues at key ports, along with reduced schedule reliability, are impacting the market. Carriers are planning to implement General Rate Increases from July, following the demand (250-350/TEU).
• The Eastern Mediterranean (EMED) is also experiencing the effects of congestion at Mediterranean ports. Some carriers have announced equipment imbalance and operational charges due to increased costs on routes from the Mediterranean to the US and equipment availability issues in specific areas of Turkey, Greece, and Egypt.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, it is recommended to book 2-3 weeks in advance.

[Ocean – Indian Subcontinent]

• Capacity is constrained due to blank sailings and increased demand from Indian Subcontinent (ISC) countries, as well as Southeast Asia and China. Rising demand from Southeast Asia and China has created a capacity crunch for the ISC region, since many services are shared.
• Rates continued to increase week over week, except for the Northwest India to US East Coast (USEC) lanes.
• Outlook continued blank sailings are expected from Northwest India to USEC. As a result, we can expect stabilized rates and potentially some upward momentum if the rate of blank sailings increases.
• News: CMA and HPL have announced that they will no longer cooperate on the INDAMEX and IN2 services. Instead, they will each launch their own services, both named the INDAMEX. This increase in services will not significantly impact available capacity, most of which already existed in the market and is merely being redistributed.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Extended transit times caused by routing around the Cape of Good Hope and growing congestion at key ports in Asia and Europe are further exacerbating the container equipment situation for US exporters, particularly for shippers loading at inland rail points.
• Congested key destination transhipment hubs for US exporters include Asia base ports and Strait of Gibraltar ports Tanger-Med and Algeciras.
• Due to operational constraints at the Port of Charleston, we are seeing vessel omissions for Transatlantic and Transpacific services, with some shifts to services calling at the Port of Savannah instead.
• With schedule reliability impacted by global disruptions, irregularities in managing earliest return dates (ERDs) for delivering laden containers to loading point are expected.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, it is recommended to book 3-4 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port and 4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD)

• Asia Pacific air cargo surge: Air cargo demand and rates from Asia Pacific origins increased year-on-year (YoY) by 20% in tonnage and 16% in rates for the last two weeks (weeks 22 and 23) up to June 9, 2024. Spot rates from Vietnam to Europe rose by 143% YoY, reaching $4.47 per kilo, with tonnages up 28% YoY.
• Spot rate variations: Significant YoY increases in spot rates to Europe were observed from several Asia Pacific origin markets in week 23, including China (+32%), Hong Kong (+18%), Malaysia (+83%), Indonesia (+46%), and Thailand (+43%). The average spot rate from Asia Pacific to the USA stood at $5.23 per kilo (+51% YoY), and from China at $5.30 per kilo (+38% YoY).
• Middle East & South Asia (MESA) boom: MESA origin rates to Europe more than doubled YoY for the last ten weeks, driven by high prices from India and Bangladesh. Overall, rates from MESA origins worldwide increased by 50% YoY in weeks 22 and 23, while average worldwide rates remained firm at $2.52 per kilo, despite declines from Europe (-16%) and North America (-11%).
• Global air cargo trends: Despite a slight decline in worldwide chargeable weight flown (-1%) compared to the previous two weeks, worldwide tonnages rose by 12% YoY in weeks 22 and 23.
• Capacity shortages: Air and ocean freight capacity shortages, exacerbated by disrupted sea freight services due to Red Sea attacks, port congestion, and vessel capacity shortages, have driven more cargo owners to opt for air cargo solutions, significantly impacting spot rates and demand across various Asia Pacific origin markets.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators for China to U.S. East Coast and China to Northern Europe Increases for the Fifth Straight Week

Week to June 17, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to Northern Europe continued an increase seen throughout May and June. The China to the U.S. East Coast OTI increased to 61 Days, and the China to Northern Europe OTI increased to 67 days due to routing around the Cape of Good. However, the China to the U.S. West Coast OTI decreased to 38 days.

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes continue to be very strong and above last year’s numbers on Transpacific while we see structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America.
• Floating rates: All general rate increases for the month of June have stuck, with further rounds to be implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on the peak conditions we are seeing in June and July. Carriers expect these rate hikes to stick and accelerate in the short term, since vessels leaving Asia are expected to be full through June: Pacific Southwest is full; Pacific Northwest is close to full into the end of month and into June. Particularly Vietnam + South/East China (Yantian/Shanghai/Ningbo) into the Pacific Southwest is especially tight.
• Fixed rates: Carriers successfully implemented a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on June 1, and the PSS will be increased again on June 15 while further adjustments are already announced for July.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Equipment shortages became severe in most of Asia’s main loading ports and liners are repositioning empty containers to improve the situation, but with the continued delays on vessels rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, we foresee it may continue in coming weeks.
• Port congestion in Asia remains severe mainly due to high yard utilization, unexpected bad weather and vessel bunching, leading to low terminal operation efficiency and long waiting times, causing last-minute port omission by carriers to catch up with the transit time.
• Demand continues to be stronger than usual and rates rose again for the second half of June ($1,500-2000 increase per 40-foot container). We expect the increase in demand to be driven not only by consumer demand but also by companies building stock due to the longer than anticipated lead times and companies trying to secure space.
• Carriers are increasing the PSS quantum to $1000-1500/TEU, aiming for existing long-term fixed deals.
• Shippers continue to push cargo for earlier departure to avoid further freight cost increases. Unless space has already been secured, all vessels are full. To push cargo on sooner estimated time of departure (ETD) and avoid delays, more carriers are open to Premium options to get cargo loaded on the first available departure date with higher equipment priority.
• Flexport continues to monitor the situation and we advise to book early, place bookings in smaller slots and pick up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, it is recommended to move on the Premium option as early as possible.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In North Europe, the demand is stable and carriers are following the trend by extending their rate levels until July.
• There are equipment issues in Southern and Eastern Germany and the Hinterlands (Austria, Hungary, Slovakia).
• In the Western Mediterranean, congestion and equipment issues in certain main ports, along with reduced schedule reliability, have impacted the market. Carriers are implementing GRI/PSS from July following the demand.
• In the Eastern Mediterranean, equipment availability is good and there is no severe congestion in the ports.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2 to 3 weeks in advance.

[Operations – Canada]

• Border-Agent Union Negotiations: At the time of publishing, a tentative agreement has been reached for 9,000 workers at Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and a strike has been avoided. Full details of the agreement are to be announced on June 13.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Extended transit times due to routing around Cape of Good Hope and growing congestion at key ports further devolves the container equipment situation for U.S. exporters, especially shippers loading at inland rail points.
• Congestion at key destination transhipment hubs for U.S. exporters include ports in Asia and Strait of Gibraltar ports Tanger-Med and Algeciras.
• Due to operational constraints at the Port of Charleston, we are seeing vessel omission for Transatlantic and Transpacific services.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port and 4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD)

• Air cargo rates from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) to Europe averaged over twice their level from May last year, with May’s average spot rate at $3.35 per kilo, up 128% YoY.
• Elevated spot prices from India to Europe ($3.78 per kilo, +160%) and Bangladesh to Europe ($4.38 per kilo, +189%) contributed to increases in overall average rates from MESA origins to Europe (up by 77% YoY).
• Asia Pacific origins saw a 21% rise in tonnages in May YoY, with air cargo rates rising nearly 12%, marking the first significant YoY full-month increase this year.
• Global average air cargo rates remained steady at $2.51 per kilo in week 22, up 1% WoW and 7% YoY, with overall rates in May up by 3% YoY and chargeable weight up by 13% YoY.
• Global average air cargo rates in week 22 were $2.51 per kilo, up 1% week on week and 7% year on year, and significantly above pre-COVID levels, up 42% compared to May 2019.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Operations – Canada]

• Border-Agent Union Negotiations: The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) will be in a legal strike position as of June 6. The majority of the members are considered essential and can not legally perform “work to rule action” or intentionally slow down trade. A simple 5-10 min delay off the normal average crossing time could have a large cumulative effect. Importers should expect to experience delays with their imports if a strike is called.
• Canadian Rail Negotiations: The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) has directed the Teamsters National Rail Conference (TCRC), the Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) to provide final replies by June 14, which could mean a CIRB decision and possibly a strike, by the end of the month.The Teamsters National Rail Conference (TCRC) union has vowed to strike at the earliest opportunity after the CIRB ruling, and there have been no negotiations in the meantime. The CN, CPKC and the Canadian International Forwarders Association (CIFA) have requested a longer period than 72 hours from decision for strike to be able to occur.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• The early peak conditions for Transpacific Eastbound Ocean freight that we entered in the month of May continue through the first part of June with volumes expected to be +10% higher YoY.
• Floating rates: All general rate increases for the month of May have stuck with further rounds to be implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on the peak conditions we are seeing in June. Carriers expect these rate hikes to stick and accelerate in the short term since vessels leaving Asia are expected to be full through June – Pacific Southwest is full, Pacific Northwest is close to full into the end of month and into June. Particularly Vietnam + South/East China (Yantian/Shanghai/Ningbo) into the Pacific Southwest is especially tight.
• Fixed rates: Carriers implemented a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on June 1, and it is likely that the PSS will be increased again on June 15. More updates to come shortly as plans are finalized.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• The market continues to tighten and space is constrained at least up until the end of June, trending to July. Multiple factors are at play including port congestion, equipment shortages, and the continued delays on vessels rerouting via Cape of Good Hope resulting in low reliability and blank sailings reported out of Asia intensifying the situation.
• Port congestion in Asia remains severe mainly due to high yard utilization, unexpected bad weather and vessel bunching, leading to low terminal operation efficiency and long waiting times, causing last-minute port omission by carriers to catch up with the transit time.
• Demand continues to be stronger than usual and rates rose again for the first half of June followed by another increase for the second half of June ($1,000 – $2,000 increase per 40-foot container). We expect the increase in demand to be driven not only by consumer demand but also by companies building stock due to the longer than anticipated lead times and companies trying to secure space.
• Carriers are increasing the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) quantum to $1000-1500/TEU aiming for existing long term fixed deals.
• Shippers continue to push cargo for earlier departure to avoid further freight cost increases. Unless space has already been secured, all vessels are full. To push cargo on sooner ETD (estimated time of departure) and avoid delays, more carriers are open to Premium options to get cargo loaded on the first available departure date with higher equipment priority.
• Flexport continues to monitor the situation and we advise to book early, place bookings in smaller lots, and pick up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, it is recommended to move on the Premium option as early as possible.
• Read more about the situation in Why Ocean Freight Rates are Surging: A Look at the Supply Shock after the Red Sea Disruptions.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Container availability for inland U.S. exporters has become much more challenging. This is a result of the global disruptions in container shipping and their subsequent impact to the flow of laden and empty containers.
• The extended transit times seen due to routing around Cape of Good Hope, growing port congestion at key ports, further devolves the container equipment situation for U.S. exporters, especially shippers loading at inland rail points.
• Congestion at key destination transhipment hubs for U.S. exporters include Asia Base Ports and Strait of Gibraltar ports Tanger-Med and Algeciras.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, Flexport recommends booking 3-4 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD)

• Rates: Global air cargo rates have surpassed 2023 levels for the first time this year, with an average increase of 4%. However, this is partly due to strong demand from Asia Pacific with higher rates. Notably, rates are significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, sitting at 41% above May 2019.
• Tonnages: Global tonnages are up 9% YoY, primarily driven by Asia Pacific (+16%) and Middle East & South Asia (+14%). However, there was a slight decrease of 2% last week.
• Capacity: Capacity remains stable globally but has grown 7% compared to the same period last year. Central & South America saw a substantial decrease (-17%) due to airlines removing capacity used for Mother’s Day flower shipments.
• Regional Highlights: Dubai to Europe shows significant YoY tonnage growth (+26%) driven by sea-air cargo demand. Both Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia continue double-digit YoY growth (+16% and +14% respectively).
• Post-holiday impact: The recent tonnages reflect a recovery from China’s Labor Day and Golden Week holidays. While Asia Pacific shows an 8% increase, half can be attributed to Golden Week.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times