分类： <span>Market Update（EN）</span>

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean-TAWB] After dropping for several weeks, rates have stabilized below pre-pandemic numbers. Carriers will start trying to maintain healthy levels by managing capacity with possible blank sailings or slowing transit speeds in the coming weeks/months.
• [Ocean-TPEB] Capacity is down from 648k TEU to 514k TEU, dropping but remaining close to the four week average of 525k.
• [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Indian Subcontinent: No GRI has been announced for the second half of August. There are some reductions on Sri Lanka (LK) and Bangladesh (BD) origins as well as North West India to USEC. Be aware that monsoon season and a heatwave in Bangladesh may cause some operational delays at origin.
• [Intermodal – Canada] Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) announced the addition of 1,000 53-foot refrigerated containers to its intermodal network, more than doubling their existing fleet and bringing more options to customers using their Mexico Midwest Express (MMX) Series premium intermodal service.
• [Ocean – LANB] From the East Coast of South America, vessel utilization remains healthy and picking up right in time for peak season, while from the west utilization is low due to the saturation in the market. ONE will also be injecting capacity into the USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

How Canada’s West Coast Port Labor Negotiations Unfolded: A Timeline After a bumpy process lasting five months, port workers in British Columbia have signed a tentative contract and operations are back to full speed ahead. In those months we’ve seen a 13-day strike, an illegal work stoppage, one voted-down proposed settlement, two tentative deals, and a federal intervention by the Canadian government. Now the focus has turned to rebuilding trust in a supply chain that has taken a financial beating during the uncertainties of the past months. ‘This Is Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better’: Panama Canal Pileup Due to Drought Reaches 154 Vessels Wait times to transit the Panama Canal currently sit at 21 days, with 154 vessels waiting for their turn. The backup is due to restrictions put in place by the Panama Canal Authority as a result of ongoing drought conditions that began last spring and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Some sectors have already begun rerouting through the Atlantic Basin or shifting back to U.S. West Coast ports, after having shifted to the East Coast earlier in the year due to labor issues.

 

Source from Felxport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – Canada] A majority of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada membership ratified the latest deal, signaling an end to the ongoing labor disputes of the past few months. Any remaining backlog is expected to be clear of the ports in the coming weeks. Please reach out to your account team if you have questions about your shipments.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern Korea tomorrow, August 10. The storm is expected to impact both air and ocean operations in the region, with the port of Busan expected to see impacts beginning the night of the 9th and lasting at least through the 11th.
• [Ocean – All] Driven by the strength of U.S. consumer spending trends and ongoing reductions in capacity, carriers have announced another round of GRIs across all lanes to begin August 15.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Demand on this lane remains soft but is picking up, vessel utilization is improving, index pricing has stabilized, and more blank sailings have been announced.
• [Trucking – U.S./Can] Cross-border market conditions remain soft, with rates continuing to drop. Shippers should anticipate reasonable rates and strong service on all freight to continue at least through the near term.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

In the Freight Business, It Feels Like a Recession [AUDIO] With falling rates and rising costs, the U.S. trucking industry is feeling some pains after three years of increasing demand, decreasing driver pools, and other pandemic-induced effects. “When you had that surge in prices, people responded to it and thought, ‘How can we supply more?’” said Flexport Chief Economist Phil Levy. “And that wrong-footed a lot of people in the business, because they had prepared for a continuing boom,” Levy said. What’s Working For — and Against — Retailers Heading Into the Holidays? In an industry that relies heavily on historical data trends to forecast upcoming cycles, this year’s upcoming holiday season presents a new set of conflicting scenarios. Working in its favor are the facts that inflation is down, consumer sentiment is up, a UPS strike was averted, and consumers are itching to get back to ‘normal.’ On the flip side we see that those same consumers are hungry for bargains, the end of student loan deferrals is looming, and political/social unrest still threatens some decisions retailers make on where to focus their efforts.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – British Columbia] A third tentative agreement has been reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada and the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA)—with a vote scheduled for Friday. As the situation continues to be fast-changing, please reach out to your account representative for the latest information on potential impacts to your shipments.
• [Regional – Panama Canal] As of July 30, daily capacity at the Panama Canal has been lowered to roughly 32 vessels per day (10 vessels allowed in the Neopanamax lock and 22 in the Panamax lock) with potential for even steeper adjustments depending on future weather forecasts and other factors.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles will be closed Thursday, August 3 while members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) meet to discuss the status of contract negotiations.
• [Regional – East Asia] As of writing, Typhoon Khanun is centered west of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to gradually move west-northwestward into the East China Sea through Thursday the 3rd. Port impacts are possible, please check with your account representative for updated info on potential impact on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Why Supply Chain Execs Should Watch the U.S. Housing Market In this panel discussion with Supply Chain Dive, Flexport’s Chief Economist, Phil Levy, weighs in on the Federal Reserve’s attempt to control inflation since March of last year by increasing interest rates and how this puts a damper on the demand for personal consumer goods. He advises businesses to not overextend themselves and “watch the labor market and whether core inflationary measures are moving significantly downwards.” Could Generative AI Solve Fashion’s Excess Stock Problems? Advocates for generative AI believe that focusing on building the proper foundations of data science and machine learning now will pave the way for an easy-to-use generative AI-powered supply chain in the future. AI, in its current state, has already transformed supply chain management through more accurate demand forecasting, more insightful data analyses, and faster decision-making. But generative AI has the potential to take these benefits one step further by speeding up the inventory management process, for example, and solving present and future supply chain challenges.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – British Columbia] This week, members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada are anticipated to cast their votes on a tentative contract agreement after the terms of the deal have been approved by a union caucus. For the most up-to-date information on how this may affect your shipments, please reach out to your account representative.
• [Regional – Panama Canal] Multiple carriers have announced a Panama Canal Surcharge to go into effect on Aug 1, 2023 in response to the ongoing draft limitations brought on by continuing drought conditions in the region.
• [Regional – Turkey] The Turkish air freight market is fully operational, but the demand is very high especially to the U.S. Consider booking “PLUS” or “URGENT” services with short notice bookings in order to secure the space.
• [Regional – Indian Subcontinent] Air capacity is available and schedules are reliable for India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh/Pakistan. Ocean capacity is available and schedules are reliable as well. Trucking is running normally and in general equipment is widely available.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Older Freighters Starting To Leave the Market   The transpacific air market is seeing a reduction in capacity as older freighters are retired. Sanne Manders, President, Ocean and Air at Flexport attributes this to carriers looking to ‘rightsize’ their capacity to fit current demand. For a deeper dive on this topic, please see our recent State of Trade Webinar, Is Shipping Bottoming Out or Still Descending? Never Mind the Delivery, More Online Consumers Are Turning To Store Pickup Buy Online, Pick up In Store (BOPIS) is an order fulfillment model that continues to grow in popularity even after the re-opening of the retail world post-pandemic. Many retailers see it as a logical extension of their use of brick-and-mortar locations as mini fulfillment centers during the height of the pandemic, and they love it because it cuts fulfillment costs by eliminating last-mile delivery altogether. Meanwhile buyers love it because it’s fast, convenient, and it saves them those same delivery fees.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – British Columbia] Talks between the International Warehouse and Longshore Union (ILWU) Canada and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) have broken down for a second time, and the strike that initially closed the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert from July 1-13 has resumed.
• [Regional – Panama Canal] Multiple carriers have announced a Panama Canal Surcharge to go into effect on Aug 1, 2023 in response to the ongoing draft limitations brought on by continuing drought conditions in the region.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Environmental regulation compliance resulting from IMO 2023 has led to vessels not returning to pre-COVID speeds, effectively removing ~8% capacity from the market.
• [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Blank sailings through this month are expected to cause a surge in demand in early August, which will coincide with a GRI announced for Aug 1.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new/expanded services, putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Port Labor Deal in British Columbia Collapses, Strike Resumes Talks between the International Warehouse and Longshore Union (ILWU) Canada and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) have broken down for a second time, and the strike that initially closed the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert from July 1-13 has resumed. In addition to the impact on Canadian imports, some containers unloaded at B.C. ports are shipped by rail to inland U.S. destinations, traffic that is expected to dip as a result of the renewed labor action. Inflation Eased to 3% in June, Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years The Consumer-Price Index (CPI) increased 3% in June, down from 4% in May. This shift signals an easing of inflation concerns and raises the possibility of the Fed not increasing interest rates after an expected rise is announced with their July meeting later in the month. For updated information and deeper dives into all things economic, please visit the Flexport Research homepage. ​Read more news summaries like this in our weekly Supply Chain Snapshots

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – British Columbia] As the B.C. dock workers strike continues into its second week, please contact your account representative for the latest information on how this may impact your shipments.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Take advantage of currently soft conditions on the floating market (low rates and open space). Consider leveraging premium services as they have returned to excellent transit time performance.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Intra-Americas volume has softened across the board. Reasons for this include inventory overstock, slack seasonality, increase in capacity, and high inflation rates in key countries like Brazil, Chile, and Colombia.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Demand and booking intake remain flat with high inflation, inventories, and energy costs; combined with geopolitical instability impacting demand on the European side. Further impacting trade on this lane is the summer holiday that traditionally starts in July and stretches for 4-6 weeks.
• [Air – Europe] The market on the Transatlantic lane continues to soften in both directions. Demand is softening as a large amount of capacity is added for the summer schedule by U.S. and Europe airlines. Rates that bottomed out in mid-May are showing signs of stabilization.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Effective capacity remains at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings and try to reign in further rate drops (rates are currently at pre-pandemic levels). Expect possible loading limitations on some U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast services due to the draft restrictions on the Panama Canal.
• [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Available capacity remains high with strong equipment availability at coastal ports. Some inland container depots (ICDs) are reporting deficits and availability is dependent on the import mix into these inland destinations, with 20ft equipment remaining the most challenging.
• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue their downward trend as capacity remains high while demand stays low. Expect this trend to continue through Q3’23. Equipment is widely available at all major European ports—with decreased congestion in both the U.S. and Europe container turnaround is quicker, leaving more equipment available.
• [Air – Asia] After bottoming out in May, rates on Asia-EU routes have rebounded and the  difference between spot rates and fixed contracts is reducing. Overall, demand has recovered, though freighter capacity is being retired—specifically on Transpacific as they lose money at low sell rates and high fuel costs. This will continue if the rate and fuel cost situations don’t improve.
• [Trucking – U.S. import/export] Starting July 1st, 2023 the regulated trip rates and hourly comp for local dray in Vancouver, BC increased by 6.2 % for all local container drayage services. Wildfires in Alberta have delayed rail moves, yard utilization has stabilized but rail is underperforming. U.S. wet and rail ports are largely fluid, with truck turn times under one hour at most ports. It remains to be seen what impact labor actions at B.C. ports will have.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Panama Canal Delays Draft Restrictions but Lowers Number of Transits

The Panama Canal Authority has scratched (for now) further restrictions on the vessel draft allowable when transiting the canal’s locks. Previously scheduled for June 25, drafts were set to drop from 44’ to 43.5’ in the Neopanamax, and from 39.5’ to 39’ on the original Panamax lock. Improved drought conditions thanks to forecasted rains and a reduction in the number of vessels transiting were behind the decision.

East Coast Ports Hit Speed Bump in Fast-Track Labor Talks

After starting discussions late last year, The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) President Harold Daggett signaled that local branches should break off talks earlier this spring. Talks between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents ports covering the Gulf and East Coasts, started at the end of 2022. As existing contracts don’t expire until September 2024, the parties have 15 months to come to an agreement.

Source from flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional Update – France] The labor actions affecting operations at the ports of Le Havre and Fos-sur-Mer have eased up and operations are running as usual, for the most part—though the situation may change unexpectedly.
• [Regional Update – NL, DE, UK] The Transatlantic air market remains stable, demand is low, capacity is plentiful, and operations out of the main hubs are normal—LHR, AMS, and FRA hubs are experiencing no disruptions.
• [Regional Update – Taiwan] Many Taiwanese businesses involved with the semiconductor, electronics, and industrial machinery sectors are considering expanding capabilities in the Philippines. The semiconductor industry in particular continues to grow as new AI developments put higher demands on chip manufacturing.
• [Regional Update – Mainland China] Ocean capacity is available and volumes are gradually increasing across the whole country, though some carriers are reporting shortages of 20 foot containers. The Air market is currently at normal levels, though as we are entering a traditional slack season expect market demand to drop slightly.
• [Regional Update – U.S.-Mexico Border] Please book shipments 5-7 days prior to CRD. If moving through Laredo, a 48 (but ideally 72) hour minimum advance notice is required in order to arrange border crossing materials and schedule a crossing time.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Reduced risk, regionalization become supply chain priorities, economics expert says

Business columnist for the Financial Times and CNN economic analyst Rana Foroohar, speaking at a recent FreightWaves event, said that the focus on redesigning supply chains for resiliency rather than purely for efficiency is the way forward. She also offered a caution, that this process will necessarily be different in terms of speed and impact across industries, similar to the broader digital transformation in other sectors.

Automotive industry change will spark a whole new supply chain

The shift to electric powertrains and autonomous navigation systems is changing the dynamic of the auto industry and its supply chain. Take as an early example semiconductor manufacturers, who don’t prioritize automotive companies as much as the tech industry. This shift means that whereas they used to be the sole focus of a supplier, car manufacturers are now increasingly finding themselves up against established organizations in completely different industries.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Carriers continue to price in order to win volume in a market seeing soft demand and no material peak season—rates are expected to continue to fall. Reductions have slowed to the U.S. West Coast (USWC) while further reductions continue to be seen to the U.S. East Coast (USEC).
• [Ocean – India] Floating Rates have stabilized through June. Slight increases, through carrier General Rate Increases (GRI), are expected for July. Fixed Rates signed at higher levels than FAK, but incoming GRIs may equalize the two.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity that opened up—due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations—put pressure on rates as supply exceeded demand. Expect this situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] Contract compliance is at an all-time high, as evidenced by the historically low tender rejection rate of below 3%—an indicator of carriers’ willingness to accept most contract freight.
• [Trucking – U.S. Import/Export] U.S. wet ports remain largely fluid, with truck turn times under one hour at most ports. Rail ports are also largely fluid though some chassis shortages are being seen due to multiple train arrivals and above average street dwells.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

For ILWU, West Coast Port Deal To Be Union-Ratified, Here’s What Has To Happen Next Representatives of the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU) and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), who represent port operators on the U.S. west coast, announced on Wednesday that a tentative agreement had been reached. The ILWU representative added that while this is excellent news and thanked interim labor secretary Julie Su for stepping in to help steer the negotiations across the line—the final process includes the full membership voting on the agreement—a process which may take several months. Retailers Are Trying To Fix Their Supply-Chain Forecasts In an ongoing effort to increase agility, flexibility, and resiliency in their supply chains—sparked by the volatility experienced during the pandemic—many retailers are increasing their technology spend. By improving the data and analytics behind their forecasts, these organizations are learning more about their customers overall, which is in turn further aiding in developing more accurate forecasts and helping them avoid stockouts and overstocks that plagued so many over the last few years.

 

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue to decline as demand remains low and capacity open. Expect this trend to continue beyond Q2’23. This situation means that equipment is widely available in all major European ports—congestion has decreased in both US and Europe, speeding the turnaround of containers and leading to wider equipment availability.
• [Ocean – LANB/LASB] Intra-Americas Trade Lane volumes have softened due to several factors, including ongoing inventory overstock, slack seasonality, and high inflation rates in key countries like Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. A rebound is expected but likely not to the level seen over the past few years.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Booking intake remains flat but the overall trend is picking up, albeit slowly. High inflation, inventories, and energy costs combined with geopolitical instability are still impacting demand on the European side.
• [Air – Asia] An increase in passenger capacity for the summer schedule is keeping overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable, along with average rates. The spot market is increasing as carriers and forwarders are less desperate to fill their empty space.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) remains at a record low—consistent with the lows seen during the early COVID-19 lockdowns—indicating sufficient capacity to meet demand and that carriers are prioritizing contract freight.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

US Unveils New Shipping Bills To Clean Up Pollution and Emissions   Senators recently introduced two new bills before the U.S. Congress. The first, the International Maritime Pollution Accountability Act, aims to clean the air around port communities and would impose a pollution fee on unloading vessels. The Clean Shipping Act of 2023 would set baselines for acceptable levels for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, then requiring them to be cut by 45% by 2030. Unsnarled Supply Chains Appear To Help Ease Goods Inflation Using updated data from the White House Council of Economic Advisors, this brief article dives into the supply chain forces involved in the current inflation situation. Drawing on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSPCI), among other sources, their conclusion is that American consumers can likely look forward to having some economic breathing room in the coming months. For another dive into the GSPCI, see Flexport Research’s recent commentary piece, Are We There Yet? Tracking the Recovery in Global Supply Chains.

Source from FLEXPORT.com