分类： <span>Market Update（EN）</span>

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Take advantage of currently soft conditions on the floating market (low rates, open space, across the board). Consider leveraging premium services as they have returned to excellent transit time performance.
• [Ocean – FEWB] On the Far East Westbound lane, demand remains flat pre-Labour Holiday—booking intake slightly increased and further dropped again. High inflation, high inventories, energy costs, and geopolitical instability are still impacting the demand at the European end. Spot rates are also decreasing.
• [Air – Transatlantic] The market continues to soften in both directions with demand continuing to decline. A large amount of capacity will be added for the summer schedule by US and Europe airlines, and volumes and rates are both expected to rebound in Q3 with demand picking back up, driven by product launches and improving economic conditions.
• [Air] Passenger capacity continues to recover with significant increase expected in the summer from Europe, North America and Asia. The added belly capacity will likely impact rates in Q3.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract tender volumes across all modes, was down 25% year-over-year (3.3% month-over-month), or 9.6% when measuring accepted volumes after the significant decline in tender rejection rates.

 

Sourse from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Effective capacity still is at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings and try to reign in further rate drops. Space remains wide open and rates have dropped to pre-pandemic levels.
• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity remains open, expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This is putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand, we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Air – Asia] The market is stabilizing and rates will remain higher than Q1 while demand has recovered and remains relatively stable. Some freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on Transpacific. An increase in passenger capacity as summer approaches should keep the overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable and maintain a healthy supply demand balance.
• [Trucking – N. America] The port of Houston discontinued Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours as of Apr 29, 2023. The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—Gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide.​​​​

Expert Voices

Container throughput at Laredo on the U.S. – Mexico border reached a new monthly high in March, jumping by more than 30,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) from February to reach nearly 235,000. To date, the evidence for near-shoring has been murky. Here we look at how it is perhaps coming into clearer view. After Long Beach and Newark, the third busiest port in the United States in March is not a ‘port,’ or at least not the kind with waves lapping against docks. It is landlocked, more than one hundred miles from the sea and the majority of ‘shipments’ pass through on the back of semis and atop long, winding trains without being offloaded. It is Laredo, Texas, or Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, depending on which side of the border you sit on. And it is one of the major indicators suggesting a potential shift in U.S. trade flows. The chart below compares monthly loaded TEUs through Laredo against the 2019 pre-pandemic average of around 165,000 per month (the straight dotted blue line). Recall that in 2019, U.S. real imports were trending downwards and that after the initial drop caused by the onset of the pandemic, we then started seeing considerable growth. Turning back to Laredo, with the exception of a likely-seasonal drop in the May of 2022, volumes have remained well-above that average for the past twelve months, culminating in the March spike, which represented a 14.8% month-on-month increase and 17.5% increase year-on-year. By contrast, total seaborne TEUs into the U.S. were only up 6.6% month-on-month and still 24.9% lower than March 2022. What makes that spike – and the volumes in the months preceding it – all the more intriguing is that it came at a time when there was an apparent disconnect between tumultuous U.S. seaborne imports, resilient consumer spending and wholesale and retail inventory levels. The rise in activity at Laredo may provide one piece of the puzzle. It could turn out to be just a temporary surge, however, and volumes will eventually settle back at historical levels. Indeed, if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that seeming trends can be anything but.

This Week In News

Here’s How Supply Chains Are Being Reshaped for a New Era of Global Trade The global supply chain may be out from under the bulk of disruptions brought on by the COVID pandemic, but that doesn’t mean everything can, or should, return to ‘normal.’ The companies that take this time to put into action the lessons they learned over the last three years are the ones setting themselves up for long-term success. Supply chain resiliency, diversification (of suppliers, partners, routes, etc.), and sustainability are the key focus areas shippers should be looking to sort out through the back half of 2023. Greywing’s New SeaGPT Solves Email Overwhelm for Maritime Crew Managers Greywing, a Singapore-based maritime intelligence platform (backed by investors like Y Combinator and Flexport), has announced the release of seaGPT—an AI chatbot for maritime crew masters. Running in the background, seaGPT takes advantage of Greywing’s proprietary database and integration with more than 18,000 ports around the world to expedite the on- and off-boarding of crew members.

 

Scoure from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch [Ocean-TAWB] As more vessels and carriers have entered the market, there is plenty of supply with shipping lines looking for extra cargo to fill the additional capacity. This situation is expected to last beyond Q2 2023. [Ocean-LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This has put pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand—we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2. [Air-Asia > N. America/EU] We expect freighter capacity to drop as older aircrafts are retired or scrapped as they cannot make money under current economic conditions. Overall capacity should be slightly net positive in Q2 but will reduce in Q3 with the end of the summer travel period. [Air-LATAM] Brazil: Required lead time is similar month over month—the lead time from requesting the booking to the airline until uplift is 2 to 4 days for Standard service on average, but will vary depending on the airline and route. Shorter lead time available on Express service. [Air/Ocean-India] Space is available and schedules are reliable for both modes out of India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh. Air cargo space is tight into the U.S. and EU for Pakistan with occasional flight delays. Equipment has good availability. ​​​​

This Week In News

US Import Gain Means Flexport Sees No Recession for Some Months The latest forecasts released by Flexport Research show a steady increase in consumption, among other signs that recession isn’t as imminent as previously thought. “A recession may well be on the way, but from the latest data, we’re not seeing it arriving in the next few months,” said Phil Levy, Flexport chief economist. At the same time, the U.S. domestic trucking industry showed the largest decline in tonnage hauled since the beginning of the pandemic, as the truck tonnage index fell 5.4% in March over February. [Podcast] What Are Responsible Supply Chains and What Role Does Trust, Transparency and Technology Play in Achieving Them? In this latest episode of Zero100’s “Radical Reinvention” podcast, Zero100 Co-Founder Kevin O’Marah is joined by: Dave Clark, CEO of Flexport, Anne-Laure Descours, Chief Sourcing Officer at PUMA, and Reginaldo Ecclissato, Chief Business Operations and Supply Chain Officer at Unilever. The discussion is a deep dive into responsible supply chains and the role that trust, transparency and technology play in achieving them—as Dave says, “I don’t think you can be in the supply chain anymore without waking up and thinking about your impact on people and the planet.” ​​​​​​

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean-All Lanes] Environmental regulation compliance resulting from IMO 2023 has led to vessels not returning to pre-Covid speeds, effectively removing ~8% capacity from the market.
• [Ocean-TAWB] Recommend booking two or more weeks prior to Cargo Ready Date (CRD) to secure space and minimize CRD changes as much as possible. Alternatively, leverage premium products to guarantee equipment and loading for your most time sensitive cargo.
• [Air-Correction] We previously reported that runway work was being conducted at Beijing Airport, which was incorrect. The maintenance work is happening at Shanghai Pudong Int’l Airport. Estimated impact (per Shanghai Airport): ~10% capacity on PVG-US, and ~25-30% capacity on PVG – EU, and work will be ongoing through June.
• [Air-Asia > N. America] Carriers are NOT sharing significantly reduced fixed rates, in order to not engage their capacity at the lowest of the market. Expect rates to stay around the same level as at the end of March.
• [Air-Transatlantic] Passenger traffic is beginning to pick up and flight frequencies will continue to increase on Trans-Atlantic routes. The summer schedule of major European and US airlines is already significantly higher from mid-April onwards.

This Week In News

Why Air Cargo Must Continue To Experiment, Embrace New Tools, Tech According to the World Bank’s recently released report, “Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies,” global GDP growth will slow significantly in the coming years. For the freight forwarding and global shipping industry, the time may be perfect to invest in technology upgrades and improved data practices. Neel Jones Shah, Flexport’s EVP of Air Strategy & Carrier Development, had this to say: “My advice for everyone working in supply chain right now is to take advantage of this time to plan for the future.” How the Pandemic’s E-Commerce Boom Drove New Packaging Trends Shifts in consumer shopping habits, environmental concerns, brand reputation, and direct-to-consumer models stemming from the early days of the COVID pandemic have all contributed to changes in how goods are shipped to buyers. Specifically, Ships-In-Own-Container (SIOC), in which  an item arrives in the original packaging without any additional box or packaging needed, has seen a major uptick in recent years.

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean] On Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB), effective capacity remains at an oversupply with carriers continuing to announce more blank sailings in an attempt to reign in further rate drops. Meanwhile, the trends of shifting imports to the U.S. East Coast (USEC), as well as Canada & the Gulf, from the U.S. West Coast (USWC) continues to be seen in YoY volume data.
• [Ocean] Meanwhile, on Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB), rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity continues to increase. Expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Further, equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Air] A portion of Beijing Airport, the 3rd busiest in the country, is shut down for maintenance through the month of April. This is expected to remove approximately ⅓ of the facility’s air cargo volume, or ~2.6% of China’s overall air cargo volume.
• [Air] Transatlantic routes are continuing to see increasing numbers of passenger flights being scheduled, thereby increasing belly capacity from Europe to N. America. This has brought capacity on these routes back to pre-COVID levels; however rates remain high due to fuel prices.
• [Trucking] The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide and highway diesel rates remain stable.

Freight Rates

The Week In News

A key inflation gauge tracked by the Fed slowed in February

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, which is less than expected. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6%, the lowest since late 2021. This is encouraging news for policymakers, as it indicates that inflation may be stabilizing after a period of rapid growth. According to Flexport’s Chief Economist Phil Levy, “You look at this report and think, we’ve got to keep applying the brakes.”

European Shippers Sign Up for Waterborne Biofuel Initiative

Seventeen European shippers, led by Dutch multimodal operator Samskip, have signed on to the “Switch to Zero” campaign by the Port of Rotterdam Authority and GoodShipping. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) mandates that 32% of all energy usage in the EU, including at least 14% of all energy in road and rail transport fuels, must come from renewable sources such as biofuels. Flexport also partners with GoodShipping to enable our customers to work toward carbon neutrality via the Impact Dashboard, part of the Flexport platform.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean] Demand on the Far East Westbound (FEWB) lane has been down due to a combination of high inflation, inventory overages, and geopolitical instability—a rebound is expected in early April.
• [Air] Asia-EU routes are continuing to see soft demand, which means rates are down and capacity is up.
• [Air] On Asia-N. America routes providers are adding flights to the schedule, but a true recovery is not expected until Q3 thanks in part to importers still selling through existing inventory.
• [Air] Capacity out of Europe continues to increase, thanks in large part to the ongoing return of regularly scheduled passenger flights.
• Recommendations: For most modes and routes, take advantage of the soft market with widely available capacity and rates mostly in line with 2019 numbers.

Freight Rates

Source from Flexport.com

Trends To Watch

• Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB) – Rates have been steadily declining throughout Q1 thanks in part to the easing of port congestion.
• LATAM Northbound (LANB) – Schedule reliability has nearly doubled due to lessening port congestion on both ends of the trade.
• Air capacity out of Asia has been cut due to dropping rates shifting much cargo back to ocean.
• Airlines have begun retiring freighters and some charters have been canceled, leading to capacity being nearly on par with pre-COVID numbers.
• In trucking news, the majority of U.S. ports and rail ramps are moving smoothly, with few, if any, delays to be found.

Trade Lane Rate Trends

Ocean

TPEB – up FEWB – down TAWB – down ISC » U.S. – down

Air

TPEB – down FEWB – down TAWB – down

The Week In News

MSC Takes Delivery of the World’s Biggest Ultra Large Container Ship

The largest container ship ever built—with a carry capacity of 24,346 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—launched last week. Owned by Bank of Communications Financial Leasing, the ship is chartered to Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Chinese officials took the opportunity of the MSC Irinia’s maiden voyage from Zhoushan to highlight the developing expertise of the country’s shipbuilding industry, giving the more established builders in Korea and Japan a run for their money.

West Coast Wipeout: Los Angeles, Long Beach Imports Still Sinking

The Port of Los Angeles has now dropped to third place for throughput at a U.S. port, behind the Port of New York and New Jersey and its own neighbor, the Port of Long Beach. Total throughput at LA in February dropped to 487,846—that’s a drop of 43% year on year. The article quotes Nerijus Poskus, Flexport’s VP of Ocean Strategy, as saying “I think a lot of the transition from the West Coast to the East Coast is permanent.”

Source from Flexport.com

 

Ocean Freight Market Update

Asia → North America (TPEB)

• Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) Carriers look to pick up rate slack amid low volume market.
  • U.S.: Current TPEB market capacity and demand levels look to hold through the end of March. Prospects of general rate increases (GRI) for April 1st appear more common from the carriers than in previous months. Routine blank sailings on almost all tradelanes will persist through the end of March, as well.
  • Canada: Market and rate conditions are similar to the U.S. Vancouver continues to see stable vessel dwell counts (1 vessel) as well as berthing delays (3 days, 9 days for rail dwell).
• Rates: Soft on most origin-destination combinations.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Open.
• Recommendation: Book at least 2 weeks prior to cargo ready date (CRD), and keep upcoming blank sailings in mind.

Asia → Europe (FEWB)

• Demand and Supply are a bit more balanced this week after the blank sailings seen immediately following Lunar New Year (LNY). Booking intake is gradually improving but still not as strong as pre-LNY. Rates are still under pressure.
• Rates: Generally reduced or extended for the first half of March.
• Capacity/Equipment: Still seeing around 10-20% blank sailing average in weeks 11/12/13 to adjust for the decrease in demand. Expect the carriers to continue the same trend into March.
• Recommendation: Allow flexibility when planning your shipments due to anticipated congestion and delays (rolls).

Europe → North America (TAWB)

• Demand remains low and space continues to be widely available. Capacity is still outstripping demand and we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.
• Rates: The drop continues as demand is not picking up at the same pace as last year and vessel utilization is in the 65-70% range, down from 90% a few months ago.
• Space: Due to the easing of congestion, space into the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and U.S. West Coast (USWC) is coming online.
• Capacity/Equipment: Equipment availability keeps getting better as congestion disappears. Low empty stacks at inland depots are also getting better in some areas, but prioritize pick-up from the Port of Loading if possible.
• Recommendation: Book 2-3 or more weeks prior to CRD. Request premium service for higher reliability and no-roll.

Indian Subcontinent → North America

• An increase in rates is expected as carriers announce General Rate Increases (GRIs) for the end of March and April. Full implementation of these GRIs is not expected, but slight increases will be felt across most Ports of Loading (POLs).
• Rates: Remain from 1H March.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Slight capacity constraints to USWC. Equipment remains top of mind, but varies drastically based on carrier, POL, and equipment type.
• Recommendation: Be open to procuring equipment from wet ports vs. inland container depots and to use alternative services that may be slightly more expensive, but with less service disruptions.

North America → Asia

• Capacity is available across all major services, and carriers are looking for volume opportunities. No major services to the Asia Pacific (APAC) region are seeing space constraints.
• Congestion has been cleared out across most North American container yards with improved operations as a result of lowered demand.
• Equipment is available and ample in most major markets.
• The outlook at the end of Q1 and headed into Q2 is that most of the existing capacity will remain in place as carriers lightly reshuffle vessel capacity across trades.
• Rates: Rate pressures continue the trend slightly downwards MoM on certain lanes from coastal ports to Asia base ports. All carriers are trying to push cargo onto these lanes/services. Deals below existing market levels are available for consistent volume opportunities.
• Space: Very open, allocation requests can be made to carriers for high volume weeks or projects with a high probability of acceptance.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight. The only pocket shippers should monitor are IPI’s where chassis availability may be low.
• Recommendation: book 1-2 weeks prior to CRD on all coastal to Asia-based port lanes, and book 2-3 weeks prior to CRD on all inland to Asia and feeder port lanes.

North America → Europe

• Capacity from the USEC is available, while certain services from the USWC and Gulf remain tight but stable.
• Most USEC to N. Europe (NEU) and Mediterranean (MED) services have low capacity utilization levels with no space constraints.
• Gulf Coast to NEU and MED services continue to have medium to high utilization levels as the market has seen a reintroduction of capacity. Still there are some inconsistencies in the schedules from the Gulf.
• The USWC to NEU, MED services are still limited in options and therefore utilization levels are artificially high.
• Rates: Rates trended slightly downward QoQ on USEC to NEU lanes. Carriers made adjustments early in Q1 and since then rates have remained flat. Gulf and USWC rates were not adjusted in Q1 given the utilization levels on those services. Carriers are willing to make deals for USEC opportunities.
• Space: Space is open from USEC, manageable from Gulf, and limited from USWC.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight in the US, save for pockets of potential chassis issues out of IPI’s.
• Recommendation: book 2 weeks prior to CRD on all EC to NEU, MED lanes, book 3 weeks prior to CRD on all Gulf to NEU, MED lanes, book 4 weeks prior to CRD for all PSW to NEU lanes.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

Air Freight Market Update

Asia

• N. China: TPEB demand has decreased this week with rates also lowering as well. The FEWB market is showing an opposite trend with both demand and rates increasing from the week prior.
• S. China: TPEB supply is tight with demand increasing in the market, resulting in rates increasing from the week prior. The Far East Westbound (FEWB) market is following at a similar trend but at a slower pace. As demand increases, expect longer booking times at origin.
• Taiwan: The market is picking up as we approach the quarter end. Rates are increasing while capacity is getting tighter.
• Korea: Rates remain the same as the previous week with no large increases in market demand.
• SE Asia: Quarter-end TPEB demand in northern Asia is causing rates to increase and hub capacity to tighten. The FEWB market remains stable.

Europe

• TAWB demand continues to fluctuate between point pairs Ex EU and UK, this is reflected in the rate levels increasing and decreasing week over week.
• There is sufficient capacity available in the market, however, expect longer lead days for direct routing. Where possible indirect options via secondary hubs are providing shorter lead days and better rates.
• No operational disruptions reported in EU & UK.
• For all lanes: Continue to place bookings early to secure best uplift options/routings. If the lead time can take a deferred option via a secondary hub, bookings could benefit from lower rate levels.

Americas

• Export demand remains steady from all markets.
• US airports are running at a normal pace.
• Capacity is opening up further, especially into Europe.
• Rates remain stable week over week.

Trucking & Intermodal

Europe

• Inland waterway shipping, or in short barging, is becoming more and more the transport modality of choice for moving containers from the Rotterdam Ocean Port to the ‘Hinterland’, not only into the Netherlands but also cross border to Germany and Switzerland.
• There is an expectation that container transport to and from the main port of Rotterdam will grow significantly over the next 20 years. If this growth is accommodated by road transport, our roads will become completely blocked. There is a lot of unused capacity in the system of inland waterways and inland shipping is capable of transporting large volumes. Compared to transport by lorry or plane, inland shipping produces far less CO2. Moreover, inland shipping accidents are rare.

Americas

Import/Export Market Trends

• Congestion is improving at Canadian ports and rail ramps, there are no significant operational delays.
• CP Vaughan Intermodal Terminal is an exception where truckers, at time, are still experiencing 4-6 hours of waiting time.
• CN continues shuttling containers from Brampton terminal to the CN Misc terminal, charging $300 per container.
• Memphis, Houston, Detroit, Savannah, and Oakland are seeing some delays and import dwells > 10 days.
• The port of Houston will be discontinuing Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours cut on April 29th.
• Congestion fees will no longer be active, effective March 1.
• Majority of US ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays.
• Highway Diesel have remained relatively stable YTD.

US Domestic Trucking Market Trends

• The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract tender volumes across all modes, was down 25% year-over-year (3.3% month-over-month), or 9.6% when measuring accepted volumes after the significant decline in tender rejection rates. ‘
• In addition to this, the Cass report indicated year-over-year volumes were down 3.9% in December after falling 3.3% month-over-month from November. This trend illustrates shipment volumes are declining compared to last year, but much more gradually.
• The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply; the higher the index, the tighter the market conditions.
• Throughout December, trends closely followed this curve, indicating that market pressures were consistent with average historical trends. Looking forward, we expect to see softening through at least February as seasonal demand eases in the first two months of the year.

Customs and Compliance News

Next COAC Meeting Scheduled

CBP’s Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee (COAC) will next meet March 29, 2023 in Seattle, CBP said in a notice. The trade community can submit comments, which are due in writing by March 24, 2023.

UFLPA Interactive Dashboard Announced

On March 14, 2023, Acting CBP Commissioner Troy Miller announced a new Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) interactive dashboard. The statistics provided on this dashboard include shipments subject to UFLPA reviews or enforcement actions. This dashboard shows the commodity type found in detained shipments and their country of origin.

Freight Market News

Maersk Returns to Ukraine With Container-on-Barge Service

After ceasing operations in Ukraine, Maersk announced a return to service via freshwater ports along the Danube estuary in the northern part of the country. The shallow-draft terminals have operated relatively smoothly throughout the year, so Maersk has implemented container-on-barge services via the Constanta/Danube Channel and the Black Sea with a transit time of approximately a day and a half.

Source from Flexport.com

Ocean Freight Market Update

Asia → North America (TPEB)

• Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) rates soften amid low demand.
  • U.S.: TPEB rates are back to seeing minor mitigations to most U.S. gateways and inland destinations this week. Overall, delays and congestion are down but the consistent weekly blank sailings can expect to remove 30% of capacity from the market. Current capacity remains above any projected container volumes, spurring recent rate reductions.
  • Canada: Market and rate conditions are similar to the U.S. Vancouver continues to see stable vessel dwell counts (3 vessels) and berthing delays (13 days, 9 days for rail dwell). The low TPEB demand is further playing a key role in keeping West Coast port and rail congestion low.
• Rates: Soft on most origin-destination combinations.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Open.
• Recommendation: Book at least 2 weeks prior to cargo ready date (CRD), and keep upcoming blank sailings in mind.

Asia → Europe (FEWB)

• Demand and Supply are a bit more balanced this week after the blank sailings seen immediately following Lunar New Year (LNY). Booking intake is gradually improving but still not as strong as pre-LNY. Rates are still under pressure.
• Rates: Generally reduced or extended for the first half of March.
• Capacity/Equipment: Still seeing around 10-20% blank sailing average in weeks 11/12/13 to adjust for the decrease in demand. Expect the carriers to continue the same trend into March.
• Recommendation: Allow flexibility when planning your shipments due to anticipated congestion and delays (rolls).

Europe → North America (TAWB)

• Demand remains low, space continues to be widely available. Inventories stock in the US are still very high so demand is not picking up as expected.
• Rates: The drop continues as demand is not picking up at the same pace as last year and vessel utilization is in the 65-70% range, down from 90% a few months ago.
• Space: Due to the easing of congestion, space in the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and U.S. West Coast (USWC) is coming online.
• Capacity/Equipment: Equipment availability keeps getting better as congestion disappears. Low empty stacks at inland depots are also getting better in some areas, but prioritize pick-up from the Port of Loading if possible.
• Recommendation: Book 2-3 or more weeks prior to CRD. Request premium service for higher reliability and no-roll.

Indian Subcontinent → North America

• Continued rate reductions were seen in the 2nd half of February, but the expectation is that stabilization will occur as we head into March.
• Rates: Decreased week-over-week.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Capacity is open with few blank sailings and limited disruptions. Equipment will continue to be an issue based on carrier choice and empty pickup location.
• Recommendation: Be open to procuring equipment from wet ports vs. inland container depots as equipment deficits are being felt in many areas.

North America → Asia

• Capacity is available across all major services, and carriers are looking for volume opportunities. No major services to the Asia Pacific (APAC) region are seeing space constraints.
• Congestion has been cleared out across most North American container yards with improved operations as a result of lowered demand.
• Equipment is available and ample in most major markets.
• The outlook at the end of Q1 and headed into Q2 is that most of the existing capacity will remain in place as carriers lightly reshuffle vessel capacity across trades.
• Rates: Rate pressures continue the trend slightly downwards MoM on certain lanes from coastal ports to Asia base ports. All carriers are trying to push cargo onto these lanes/services. Deals below existing market levels are available for consistent volume opportunities.
• Space: Very open, allocation requests can be made to carriers for high volume weeks or projects with a high probability of acceptance.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight. The only pocket shippers should monitor are IPI’s where chassis availability may be low.
• Recommendation: book 1-2 weeks prior to CRD on all coastal to Asia-based port lanes, and book 2-3 weeks prior to CRD on all inland to Asia and feeder port lanes.

North America → Europe

• Capacity from the USEC is available, while certain services from the USWC and Gulf remain tight but stable.
• Most USEC to N. Europe (NEU) and Mediterranean (MED) services have low capacity utilization levels with no space constraints.
• Gulf Coast to NEU and MED services continue to have medium to high utilization levels as the market has seen a reintroduction of capacity. Still there are some inconsistencies in the schedules from the Gulf.
• The USWC to NEU, MED services are still limited in options and therefore utilization levels are artificially high.
• Rates: Rates trended slightly downward QoQ on USEC to NEU lanes. Carriers made adjustments early in Q1 and since then rates have remained flat. Gulf and USWC rates were not adjusted in Q1 given the utilization levels on those services. Carriers are willing to make deals for USEC opportunities.
• Space: Space is open from USEC, manageable from Gulf, and limited from USWC.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight in the US, save for pockets of potential chassis issues out of IPI’s.
• Recommendation: book 2 weeks prior to CRD on all EC to NEU, MED lanes, book 3 weeks prior to CRD on all Gulf to NEU, MED lanes, book 4 weeks prior to CRD for all PSW to NEU lanes.

Air Freight Market Update

Asia

• N. China: TPEB demand continues to increase leading to tight capacity conditions. Space is already quite full through the end of the week. The main contributing factor is an increase in e-commerce demand. As a result, rates have increased this week. The FEWB market remains unchanged with rates remaining the same as the previous week.
• S. China: Supply is tight with demand increasing in the market, resulting in rates increasing from the week prior.
• Taiwan: The market is slack with some carriers canceling freighter flights on the TPEB tradelane.
• Korea: Rates remain the same as the previous week with no large increases in market demand.
• SE Asia: Markets are soft and demand remains unchanged with no signs of increases heading into March.

Europe

• Overall Demand has increased with more fluctuations in rates WoW across point pairs.
• Currently direct routings have a longer lead time and higher rates.
• More indirect options available with one or more connections at a cheaper rate but with a slightly longer TT.
• No major disruptions or delays across major hubs.

Americas

• Export demand remains steady from all markets.
• US airports are running at a normal pace.
• Capacity is opening up further, especially into Europe.
• Rates remain stable week over week.

Trucking & Intermodal

Europe

• Inland waterway shipping, or in short barging, is becoming more and more the transport modality of choice for moving containers from the Rotterdam Ocean Port to the ‘Hinterland’, not only into the Netherlands but also cross border to Germany and Switzerland.
• There is an expectation that container transport to and from the main port of Rotterdam will grow significantly over the next 20 years. If this growth is accommodated by road transport, our roads will become completely blocked. There is a lot of unused capacity in the system of inland waterways and inland shipping is capable of transporting large volumes. Compared to transport by lorry or plane, inland shipping produces far less CO2. Moreover, inland shipping accidents are rare.

Americas

Import/Export Market Trends

• Congestion is improving at Canadian ports and rail ramps, there are no significant operational delays.
• CP Vaughan Intermodal Terminal is an exception where truckers, at time, are still experiencing 4-6 hours of waiting time.
• CN continues shuttling containers from Brampton terminal to the CN Misc terminal, charging $300 per container.
• Memphis, Houston, Detroit, Savannah, and Oakland are seeing some delays and import dwells > 10 days.
• The port of Houston will be discontinuing Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours cut on April 29th.
• Congestion fees will no longer be active, effective March 1.
• Majority of US ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays.
• Highway Diesel have remained relatively stable YTD.

US Domestic Trucking Market Trends

• The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract tender volumes across all modes, was down 25% year-over-year (3.3% month-over-month), or 9.6% when measuring accepted volumes after the significant decline in tender rejection rates. ‘
• In addition to this, the Cass report indicated year-over-year volumes were down 3.9% in December after falling 3.3% month-over-month from November. This trend illustrates shipment volumes are declining compared to last year, but much more gradually.
• The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply; the higher the index, the tighter the market conditions.
• Throughout December, trends closely followed this curve, indicating that market pressures were consistent with average historical trends. Looking forward, we expect to see softening through at least February as seasonal demand eases in the first two months of the year.

Customs and Compliance News

USTR Releases 2023 Trade Policy Agenda

On March 1, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released the Biden Administration’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda and 2022 Annual Report. Trade priorities for 2023 include advancing a worker-centered trade policy, realigning the U.S.-China trade relationship, engaging with trading partners and multilateral institutions, promoting policy confidence through enforcement, and expanding stakeholder engagement.

Freight Market News

Walmart’s Store-Fulfilled Delivery Sales Nearly Triple in Two Years

Expanding into omnichannel shopping options has been a winning strategy for many retailers over the last few years. Walmart has proven to be no exception, with a 3x increase in store-fulfilled deliveries in just the last 2 years. They now have 3,900 of their 4,717 U.S. locations providing inventory to fill customer orders.

MSC, World’s Biggest Shipping Company and U.S.-China Trade Bellwether, Is Betting on a Rebound for Global Economy

The conversation with MSC CEO Soren Toft ranges pretty widely, but always comes back to one main point—he sees a positive turn for the shipping market coming in the second half of 2023. U.S. and European consumers remain active, and major retailers are selling down their overstocks from last year. Touching on the recent announcement of the end of the 2M alliance between MSC and Maersk, Toft says he remains optimistic and that the dissolution was the result of the two companies simply having different visions for their respective futures.

Source from Flexport.com