Trends to Watch

[ILA Work Stoppage Watch]

• If the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which represents 45,000 workers at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the area’s longshore employers (including carriers, marine terminal operators, and port associations), fail to finalize a new master contract by the September 30 deadline, the union intends to proceed with a work stoppage on October 1.
• An ILA work stoppage could upend U.S. supply chains, and even lead to pandemic-level bottlenecks. Beyond strained U.S. West Coast ports (where many shipments will be rerouted), we could see chassis shortages, skyrocketing trucking and air freight rates, and a number of other dire outcomes.
• Please refer to our live blog for a comprehensive guide to the situation, including detailed guidance for Flexport customers. There, you’ll also find live updates from our experts. Flexport will continue to provide timely updates and work closely with our customers to take proactive action and plan ahead in the event of a potential ILA work stoppage.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Ocean Network Express (ONE) recently announced a new Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and Asia-Middle East trade lane service line-up, slated to launch in February of 2025.
• Additionally, beginning in February 2025, ONE will cooperate closely with HMM and Yang Ming. Together, they will comprise the Premier Alliance.
• Floating rates continue to decrease, and will be extended until the end of September. The market is moving rates further, downtrending with promotional and bullet rates, which have been implemented by most carriers. Volume remains flat, as we did not see the typical pre-Golden-Week peak.
• In light of uncertainties surrounding the potential ILA work stoppage, some BCOs are shifting volumes from the East Coast to the West Coast where possible. We’re seeing East Coast rates decrease faster than West Coast rates.
• Blank sailings impact 22-28% of the capacity being pulled out for weeks 41 and 42 in October for Golden Week.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Market trends have shifted, and spot rates are falling rapidly. The core challenge currently faced by carriers is the slowdown in demand. Although carriers have increased capacity through the Cape of Good Hope to address growing demand within Asia-Europe trade, it seems that demand has already reached its peak.
• Floating rates for 2H September dropped further, but remain on the higher side compared to early 2024. Carriers are being more proactive in adjusting rates to optimize vessel utilization. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by almost $1000/TEU over the past 2 weeks.
• Long-term named account business continues to face carrier restrictions surrounding space and equipment priority. Depending on further market developments, carriers may be open again to negotiations.
• Equipment shortages are getting better, but some ports of loading (POLs) with fewer direct calls still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs and 45’HCs. Weight restrictions, especially for overweight 20’GPs, are still pending acceptance per loading port policies and vessel size requirements.
• As part of its new product/service launch in February 2025, ONE—alongside fellow Premier Alliance members HMM and Yang Ming—will cooperate with MSC to improve service across Asia-Europe trade lanes.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In the event of an ILA work stoppage, there is no guaranteed solution for maintaining 100% of volumes ex Europe to the U.S. East Coast. Carriers will try to offer services via Canada, but space/connections are limited and may not absorb all volume.
• Carriers are seeing good utilization for both Northern European and Mediterranean services. September increases have been implemented, and most carriers have already announced October increases.
• We’re expecting to see new networks from carriers on the TAWB in 2025. So far, MSC and the Gemini Cooperation have already made announcements regarding new ocean network options.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue. At German ports, there are no further work stoppages expected at the moment.
• To protect space/equipment, we recommend booking 2-3 weeks in advance.

[Air – Global] (Freight Update Mon 26 Aug – Sun 01 Sep 2024 (Week 35)

• Year-on-year growth: Worldwide air cargo demand in August 2024 exhibited a +10% increase in tonnage compared to the same period last year, with rates rising +12% year-on-year (YoY).
• August vs. July 2024 trends: Compared to July 2024, August saw a slight decline in chargeable weight (-2%), but a +1% rise in average yields to $2.49 per kilo. Prices from Asian-Pacific origins rose by +1%, reaching $3.26 per kilo, and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) rates increased by +3%, reaching $2.81 per kilo.
• Regional price increases: Rates from Asian-Pacific origins were +22% higher YoY at $3.26 per kilo, and MESA origins saw rates rise +58% YoY to $2.81 per kilo, despite a slight tonnage decline in August (-3% and -2%, respectively).
• Week-on-week trends (week 35): Overall tonnage in week 35 (26 August – 1 September) slipped by -1%, with a notable -4% WoW decrease from North America due to the Labor Day holiday. Rates in North America increased by +4%, while capacity fell by -5% WoW.
• Two-week-on-two-week (2Wo2W) changes: Combining weeks 34 and 35, tonnages and rates both rose +1%, driven largely by a +5% rebound in demand from the Asia-Pacific, with intra-Asian-Pacific volumes up +8%, primarily due to recovery from Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Webinars

North America Freight Market Update Live

(Today) Thursday, September 12 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Navigating Peak Season: Essential Omnichannel & Fulfillment Strategies for Success

Tuesday, September 17 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Transforming Maritime Logistics: A Conversation Between Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen and Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen

Thursday, September 19 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET / 16:00 BST / 17:00 CEST

Navigating Peak Season: Expert Insights on Ocean and Air Shipping Trends

Wednesday, September 25 @ 10:00 am PT / 1:00 pm ET

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

The Ocean Timeliness Indicator has plateaued for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, and increased for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to September 9, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to North Europe has plateaued at 38.5 and 69 days, respectively. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast has risen from 57.5 to 59 days.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Customs]

• Last Friday, September 13, the Biden Administration issued an executive action that could deny de minimis treatment for all U.S. imports covered by Section 301, 201, and 232 tariffs (including a wide range of products originating from China).
• Businesses may see additional duty costs and increased documentation requirements for de minimis shipments as soon as (or even before) Black Friday.
• In the short term, businesses may be required to start providing HTS classifications down to the 10-digit level for all products. Check out our detailed guide to the de minimis executive action on our blog, where you’ll also find live updates.
• Additionally, last Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) outlined final modifications to Section 301 tariffs imposed on certain products originating from China.
• Based on public comments on the agency’s preliminary announcement on May 14, there will be additional §301 duties on several categories of goods. See our blog update for a comprehensive breakdown of these tariffs—some of which will be implemented as soon as September 27, 2024.
• Flexport is committed to helping our clients stay on top of these changes. Please reach out to your customs rep at CustomsBD@flexport.com if you have any questions.

[ILA Work Stoppage Watch]

• The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)’s master contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire on September 30. If they fail to finalize a new contract by then, the union intends to proceed with a work stoppage on October 1.
• An ILA work stoppage could upend U.S. supply chains, and even lead to pandemic-level bottlenecks. Beyond strained U.S. West Coast ports (where many shipments will be rerouted), we could see chassis shortages, skyrocketing trucking and air freight rates, and a number of other dire outcomes.
• See our live blog for a comprehensive guide to the situation, including detailed guidance for Flexport customers. There, you’ll also find live updates from our experts. Flexport will continue to provide timely updates and work closely with our customers to take proactive action and plan ahead in the event of a potential ILA work stoppage.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• As we approach Golden Week, we see no signs of an uptick in volume for the pre-Golden-Week rush.
• In response to a potential ILA work stoppage, we’re seeing some BCOs shift volume to the U.S. West Coast (or via the U.S. West Coast) as a contingency plan. A few carriers are looking at implementing East Coast / Gulf port surcharges for mid-October in the event of an ILA work stoppage.
• Should an ILA work stoppage occur, expect carrier-side surcharges, disruptions to operations, port congestion, and vessel deployment impacts for East Coast / Gulf Coast schedules and returns. Additionally, we may see potential equipment shortages at origin, depending on the duration of the potential work stoppage.
• Floating rates have been extended until the end of September, with some fine-tuning and further mitigation. East Coast / Gulf surcharges will possibly be implemented by carriers in October, depending on the potential ILA work stoppage post-Golden-Week.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) will remain unchanged until the end of September, and will extend into October (through Golden Week).

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Demand is trending downwards and becoming slack. Volume for the last week of September might pick up a bit, but we do not anticipate there to be any space issues.
• Floating rates for 2H September dropped further, but remain higher compared to early 2024. To optimize vessel utilization, carriers are being more proactive than before in adjusting rates. The SCFI dropped by another $618/TEU last week; over the last 3 weeks, the SCFI dropped from $4,400/TEU to $2,841/TEU.
• Long-term named account business still faces carrier restrictions on space and equipment priority. Carriers are gradually (but conservatively) becoming open to negotiations again.
• Equipment shortages are getting better, but some ports of loading (POLs) with fewer direct calls still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs and 45’HCs. Weight restrictions, especially for overweight 20’GPs, are still pending acceptance per loading port policies and vessel size requirements.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• We’re approaching the 30th of September, when the ILA’s contract with the USMX is set to expire. In the absence of an agreement, a work stoppage may begin on October 1. Carriers have not announced a contingency plan.
• All carriers implemented increases in the first and second halves of September. They have announced similar increases for October.
• Carrier utilization looks good in all regions of Europe, plus the West Mediterranean and East Mediterranean.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue.
• We advise that you keep booking 2-3 weeks in advance to protect space/equipment.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Heading into October, rates are increasing on base port lanes involving the U.S. East Coast and U.S. Gulf Coast ports as POLs.
• Changing earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to result in operational challenges during the origin operations sequence.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final ports of discharge (PODs) are losing capacity as appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] Mon 02 Sep – Sun 08 Sep 2024 (Week 36):

• Q4 rates are creeping up amid NPIs, ILA negotiations, and the ongoing Red Sea crisis, adding to the anticipated seasonal spike in demand. eCommerce also remains a focal point, with the de minimis executive action expected to potentially impact the holiday season.
• Global air cargo rates: Average global spot rates rose +6% week-over-week (WoW) to $2.85 per kilo in week 36, with a +30% year-on-year (YoY) increase, driven by +41% from the Asia-Pacific and +101% from MESA.
• Global tonnage decline: Worldwide tonnages decreased -1% WoW, primarily due to a -12% drop in North American volumes linked to the Labor Day holidays in the U.S. and Canada.
• Asia-Pacific & Intra-Asia market: Intra-Asia-Pacific tonnages surged +11% (2Wo2W), with tonnages from the Asia-Pacific to Europe up +6%, contributing to a +9% rise in global chargeable weight and +15% higher average rates YoY.
• MESA spot rates: Spot rates from MESA to Europe rose +7% WoW (to $3.42 per kilo) and +116% YoY, including increases from Dubai (+8% WoW) and Bangladesh (+5% WoW).

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Webinars

Navigating the New Executive Action on De Minimis Imports

Click the link above to watch yesterday’s webinar on demand.

Navigating Peak Season: Expert Insights on Ocean and Air Shipping Trends

Wednesday, September 25 @ 10:00am PT / 1:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, October 10 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

The Ocean Timeliness Indicator has shown some oscillations this week, with a slight uptick for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, and a small decrease for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to September 16, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to North Europe demonstrated a slight uptick, rising from 38.5 to 39 days and 69 to 71 days, respectively. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast has fallen back to its earlier position from two weeks ago, dropping from 59 to 57.5 days.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Customs]

• On September 13, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) outlined final modifications to Section 301 tariffs imposed on certain products originating from China.
• We have compiled a list of items subject to the new tariffs—some of which go into effect tomorrow (September 27, 2024). For a detailed breakdown of tariff updates, read our blog.
• Learn more about what’s changing, why it matters, and how these new rules could affect your holiday shipments and supply chain. Don’t miss our webinar for further insights.
• On September 13, the Biden administration issued an executive action introducing significant changes to the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments under $800. This shift could greatly impact U.S. businesses that rely on the $800 de minimis threshold for duty-free goods, particularly those benefiting from exemptions under Section 301, 201, and 232 tariffs.
• Businesses may see additional duty costs and increased documentation requirements for de minimis shipments before year-end.
• In the short term, businesses may be required to start providing HTS classifications down to the 10-digit level for all products. Check out our detailed guide to the de minimis executive action on our blog, where you’ll also find live updates.
• Reach out to our team of trade advisors at CustomsBD@flexport.com to understand how you can mitigate the risks.

[ILA Work Stoppage Watch]

• More U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports are extending their operating hours in anticipation of a potential ILA work stoppage on October 1 as part of their contingency plans.
• To help their customers navigate this looming supply chain disruptions caused by the impending work stoppage, more shipping companies have been actively advising their customers to implement contingency measures. For example, multiple carriers, including ONE, Hapag-Lloyd, and others have announced port omissions and cargo discharges at alternate ports along the U.S. East and Gulf coast. Additionally, bookings for export of Dangerous goods (DG) and Reefer cargo have also been restricted.
• Follow our live blog for real-time updates. Flexport will continue to provide timely updates and work closely with our customers to take proactive action and plan ahead in the event of a potential ILA work stoppage.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Demand remains flat and continues its downtrend leading into and following Golden Week. Ocean freight rates are being extended until October 14 with further rate mitigations, particularly for the U.S. Southwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
• In anticipation of a potential ILA work stoppage, some BCOs are shifting volumes to or through the U.S. West Coast as a contingency plan. A few carriers are considering implementing surcharges for East Coast and Gulf Coast ports by mid- to late October if the stoppage occurs.
• Should the ILA work stoppage materialize, expect carrier-imposed surcharges, operational disruptions, port congestion, and vessel deployment issues affecting East Coast and Gulf Coast schedules. There may also be equipment shortages at origin, depending on how long the stoppage lasts.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) will remain unchanged through September, and are expected to extend into October, covering the Golden Week period.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Demand is trending downward, with vessels now open for bookings. Carriers are preparing roll pools ahead of China’s Golden Week.
• Floating rates have continued to decline in the second half of September, as easing demand takes hold. However, rates remain higher compared to early 2024 levels. Carriers are being more proactive in adjusting rates to optimize vessel utilization. The SCFI dropped by $591/TEU in August, and has fallen an additional $1,808/TEU so far in September.
• While carriers are cautiously reopening long-term named account business negotiations, they remain conservative in their approach.
• Equipment shortages are improving overall, though some ports of loading (POLs) with less frequent direct calls still face occasional shortages due to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope (COGH).

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Carriers have announced General Rate Increases (GRIs), Rate Restoration Initiatives (RRIs), and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs), effective October 1st.
• In response to the potential work stoppage on the U.S. East Coast, nearly all carriers have introduced disruption surcharges to cover the additional operational costs associated with the work stoppage. The estimated impact of a potential work stoppage:
• A 1-day strike could take 6 days to clear the backlog.
• A 1-week strike could require 1.5 to 2 months for recovery.
• A 2-week strike could result in a 4-month recovery period.
• No equipment shortages are reported in Southeast Europe (SEU).

[Air – Global] Mon 09 Sep – Sun 15 Sep 2024 (Week 37):

• Worldwide tonnage increase (week on week): Air cargo tonnages increased by +4% in week 37 (Sept. 9-15), driven by +5% growth from the Asia-Pacific, +6% from Central and South America, and a +10% rebound from North America, following Labor Day disruptions.
• Average worldwide rate increase (year on year): Average worldwide rates increased to $2.58 per kilo, up +14% YoY, and more than +50% above pre-Covid levels (September 2019). The Asia-Pacific and MESA regions saw increases of +24% and +56%, respectively, while North America and Europe experienced a decline of -7% YoY.
• Bangladesh to USA spot rates (4 weeks on 4 weeks): Spot rates from Bangladesh to the U.S. have soared to $7.49 per kilo in week 37, more than three times higher than the same period last year (+219%). Rates have remained above $7 per kilo for the past four weeks.
• Dubai to USA tonnage surge (4 weeks on 4 weeks): Tonnages from Dubai to the U.S. surged by around +50% over the past four weeks, with volumes now more than three times their levels last year (+275% in week 37).
• Japan to U.S. spot rate spike (3-month comparison): Spot rates from Japan to the U.S. reached $8.33 per kilo in week 37—their highest level this year—marking a +50% increase since mid-June levels, driven by disruptions from typhoons.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Webinars

Flexport Customs: Duty Optimization Through Tariff Engineering and HTS Classification

Thursday, October 3 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, October 10 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Transforming Maritime Logistics: A Conversation Between Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen and Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen

Available On Demand

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Stabilization has been the key word for the past few weeks’ Ocean Timeliness Indicator, with minor to no oscillations across the board.

Week to September 23, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has plateaued at 39 days. Meanwhile, China to North Europe showed a slight decrease, falling from 71 to 70.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast also demonstrated a slight shift, rising from 57.5 to 58 days.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Departures from Asia remain strong, largely supported by the addition of extra loader capacity to alleviate the backlog from the cargo rush between May and July. However, with clients reporting healthy inventory levels, demand may soften in the coming weeks. This is particularly likely as we observe structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Adverse weather conditions around the COGH are expected to cause further delays and capacity challenges to the U.S. East Coast. On a positive note, water levels at Gatun Lake have recovered, allowing local authorities to ease weight restrictions for the Panama Canal.
• In preparation for the upcoming Golden Week holiday, carriers are implementing blank sailing plans that will impact Weeks 38 through 41 to adjust capacity on the TPEB route. This may lead to changes in sailing schedules or transit times, particularly for transshipment connections, as blank sailings could result in rollovers to the next available schedule.
• Floating rates: The September 1 General Rate Increase (GRI) was withdrawn by carriers Aug 31 As a result, rates from the end of August have been extended.
• Fixed rates: Discussions regarding the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) remain unchanged at this time. However, if the floating market continues to soften, there may be movement in the fixed market.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Demand is slowing, with more capacity available in September than in August. If demand remains steady, last-minute deployment adjustments may be necessary to balance demand and supply.
• Floating rates dropped further in the first half of September, but remain higher than in early 2024. Carriers are now being more proactive in adjusting rates to optimize vessel utilization, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropping by 12% in Week 36, marking the most significant change of 2024.
• Long-term named account business continues to face restrictions from carriers regarding space and equipment priority.
• While equipment shortages are improving, some ports of loading (POLs) with fewer direct calls still anticipate potential shortages for specific container types, such as 20’GPs and 45’HCs. Additionally, weight restrictions, especially for overweight 20’GP containers, are still pending acceptance based on the loading port’s policy and vessel size.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Our main concern at this time is the potential work stoppage at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. Although there has been no official announcement yet, the contracts are set to expire on September 30th.
• Carriers are maintaining high utilization rates for both Northern European and Mediterranean services, leading to rate increases in September, with a follow-up Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) expected in October.
• Schedule reliability has decreased due to delays at West Mediterranean ports.
• Equipment deficits continue to be an issue in certain areas of South and East Germany, as well as the Hinterlands. While no further work stoppages are anticipated at German ports, the equipment shortages remain a challenge.
• To ensure space and equipment availability, it remains advisable to book 2-3 weeks in advance.

[Air – Global]

• Week-on-week tonnage rebound: In week 34 (August 19-25, 2024), global air cargo tonnages increased by +5% compared to the previous week, with a notable +11% week-on-week (WoW) rise from the Asia-Pacific region, largely driven by a +91% WoW recovery in Japan following Typhoon Ampil.
• Regional tonnage contributions: The Asia-Pacific region’s recovery accounted for 40% of the global rebound, with major contributions from South Korea (+16% WoW), mainland China (+7% WoW), and Hong Kong (+3% WoW). Together, these regions contributed 30% to the global tonnage improvement.
• Year-on-year growth: Based on combined data from weeks 33 and 34, global air cargo tonnages increased by +9% year on year (YoY), with significant growth from the Asia-Pacific (+11%), the Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +10%), Europe (+8%), and Central and South America (+8%).
• Stable worldwide rates: Average worldwide air cargo rates remained stable at $2.51 per kilo, up +12% YoY. Rates saw significant increases from MESA (+59%) and the Asia-Pacific (+22%), while rates from Europe and North America decreased by -10% and -9% YoY, respectively.
• Bangladesh and MESA rate increases: Spot rates from MESA to Europe rose by +113% YoY, with rates from Bangladesh to Europe reaching $5.02 per kilo, a +161% YoY increase—the highest level this year. Spot rates from India and Sri Lanka to Europe also saw significant YoY increases of +145% and +106%, respectively.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

The Ocean Timeliness Indicator is on the rise for China to the U.S. West Coast, while China to the U.S. East Coast stabilizes and China to Europe decreases.

Week to September 2, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator continues its ascent for China to the U.S. West Coast, rising from 37.5 to 39 days. Meanwhile, China to Northern Europe is on a downward trend, decreasing from 71.5 to 69.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast has plateaued at 57.5 days, suggesting a potential increase in the coming weeks.

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Update on Canada Railroad Labor Negotiations]

• Canada’s two largest railways – Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) – have locked out more than 9,000 workers represented by the Teamsters labor union after contract negotiations broke down.
• This rail stoppage is the result of months of tense negotiations between the railways and 9,300 engineers, conductors, and yard workers. Despite last-minute efforts to reach a deal, talks broke down just before the midnight deadline, leading to the lockout.
• The consequences are huge. Canada’s railways move $1 billion worth of goods daily, and this stoppage could severely disrupt supply chains across North America. The ripple effects could hit industries ranging from agriculture to manufacturing, impacting both the U.S. and Canadian economies.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Departed volumes remain strong, largely supported by additional extra loader capacity aimed at easing the backlog caused by the cargo rush from May to July. While clients currently report healthy inventory levels, we anticipate a potential softening in demand over the coming weeks. This could be impacted by structurally blank sailings resulting from Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and ongoing port congestion in Asia and North America. Adverse weather conditions around the COGH are expected to lead to further delays and capacity challenges for the U.S. East Coast (USEC).
• On a positive note, water levels at Gatun Lake have recovered, leading local authorities to ease weight restrictions for the Panama Canal.
• Floating rates: the General Rate Increase (GRI) announcement for the second half of August is facing downward pressure as some carriers begin to adjust FAK rates. Major shipping lines are holding off on immediate changes but are closely monitoring the situation, particularly in the face of looming work stoppages.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions remain intense due to the rate gap between FAK and NAC, which currently does not support mitigations.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Demand is stabilizing, with blank sailings and extra loaders at the same time for the end of August. Vessel utilization remains solid, while full capacity will return in September via THEA/2M. This may lead to vessel-filling challenges, should demand remain consistent with August levels.
• Floating rates have begun to decline in the second half of August—a pattern that will extend into early September—though they remain relatively high. Carriers are being more proactive in adjusting rates to better optimize capacity.
• For long-term named account business, carriers continue to restrict space and equipment availability as a priority measure.
• With the equipment shortage improving, some ports with fewer direct calls still anticipate potential shortages of specific container types, such as 20’GPs and 45’HCs.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Some carriers have tried to increase rates from the Mediterranean for September. Ultimately, they’ve extended them due to the summer slack season, but will try again in October if demand strongly increases.
• Out of North Europe, carriers are pushing hard to increase FAK rates.
• Even though most factories are closed, demand remains stable due to last month’s capacity reduction.
• In general, there are no equipment shortages, except in some German inland depots.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Capacity from the U.S. to the Indian subcontinent and Middle Eastern ports has tightened, related to vessel omissions and blank sailings.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final ports of discharge (PODs) are losing capacity as the appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• Challenges related to earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to persist for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global]

• Northern China’s market has started to pick up on both the FEWB and TPEB due to volume surges across ecommerce, Apple NPI, and other traditional air clients.
• Rates from Hong Kong / South China are stable so far, but we expect an increasingly constrained market in the weeks leading up to peak season.
  Volcanic activity in the Russian peninsula has led to cancellations and tightened capacity this week.
• Taiwan’s market remains congested. Direct space from Taiwan is expensive, but you can find cheaper options transiting via other Asia hubs (Korea, etc.).
• Vietnam’s market has temporarily declined due to heavy congestion associated with the summer holidays. Capacity will tighten again post-holidays (September).
• Capacity from the Indian subcontinent to North America and Europe remains constrained.
• Bangladesh’s operations have returned to normal. The local situation remains volatile, and there is a massive cargo backlog at origin.
• Capacity remains open and demand is stable from North American and European origins.
• Service was disrupted last week by natural disasters. Volcanic eruptions in Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula have released ashes on flight routes, prompting a payload reduction for airlines from Asia to the U.S. and Europe. The situation is back to normal now. This is expected to occur again throughout Q4 2024, as the volcano is still active. A typhoon near Japan last week led to service failures and congestion for Japanese carriers. While more typhoons are anticipated in Asia during this peak season, their impacts are expected to remain localized.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicator plateaued for China to the U.S. West Coast, while China to the U.S. East Coast and China to Europe showed upticks.

Week to August 19, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator showed a sudden uptick for both China to the U.S. East Coast and China to Northern Europe, increasing respectively from 58.5 to 60 days and 69.5 to 72.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast plateaued at 37.5 days.

Trends to Watch

[Canada Railroad Strikes]

• Nearly 10,000 Canadian rail workers represented by the Teamsters Union may strike early next week, pending a ruling by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) on Friday, August 9.
• The dispute involved the Canadian National Railway Company (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC), over issues related to working conditions, wages, and fatigue management.
• Canadian railways transported half of the country’s exports in 2022, totaling more than $276 billion dollars’ worth of goods, according to the Railway Association of Canada.
• A strike or lockout could greatly affect both imports and exports in Canada. Importers and exporters looking to get cargo moving will need to resort to other modes of transport to move their goods. The CIRB will determine what essential services, if any, will be required to move if a stoppage of work goes into effect.
• Significant impacts could be felt across many industries, including the agriculture sector, an industry that relies heavily on rail to transport goods.
• Moving goods within the country would be primarily supported by transloading, and trucking goods to final destinations. These solutions would be costly and time-consuming, however, and are not a long-term strategy for most importers. Both CN and CPKC are firmly committed to reaching a negotiated agreement that prevents any work stoppage.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on the Transpacific route. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC).
• Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’ve seen less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW), from China’s main ports.
• A positive note: water levels at the Gatun Lake in Panama have recovered, and local authorities have softened the Panama Canal’s weight restrictions.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have continued to decrease spot rates to the EC, WC, and the Gulf Coast to match supply and demand. A General Rate Increase (GRI) has been announced for the second half of August.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• THE Alliance announced three more void plans for September due to vessel delays, continuously impacting available capacity in the market.
• Demand for the last week of August and early September has slowed down a bit, compared to the June and July market. Floating rates remain on the higher side, and with blank sailings in place, the outlook for space remains tight.
• Long-term named account business remains restricted by carriers for space and equipment priority.
• Equipment shortages have ceased a bit since May and June. For some port of loadings (POLs) with less direct calling, we still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs.
• For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend selecting premium options as soon as possible for an earlier estimated time of departure (ETD) and space with higher equipment priority.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• The congestion in the Mediterranean and North Europe, along with schedule reliability issues and blank sailings, remains the same, leading to increased rates for September 1st.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue. At German ports, there are no further strikes expected so far.
• Of primary concern is the potential strike in the U.S.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings ex North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings ex Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Capacity has tightened from the U.S. to the Indian subcontinent, Middle Eastern ports, and North European ports, related to vessel omissions and blank sailings. Service strings relying on feeder services to final ports of discharge (PODs) are losing capacity as the appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lanes.
• Continual changes to earliest return dates (ERDs) present ongoing challenges for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 2 weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] Air Freight Update Mon 22 July – Sun 28 July 2024 (Week 30)(Source: WorldACD)

• Worldwide tonnage stability and regional variations: Worldwide air cargo tonnages remained stable in the last week of July after a -2% decline the previous week, with an overall -5% decrease compared to the end of June. Tonnages from four of the six main world regions fell, with Central and South America seeing a -4% decline and the Asia-Pacific, North America, and Africa each experiencing a -1% drop. Meanwhile, Europe and MESA saw increases of +2% and +1%, respectively.
• Impact of Bangladesh disruptions: Between weeks 28 and 29, tonnages from Bangladesh to Europe fell by -29% due to political protests and internet blackouts. In week 30, they rebounded by +6%. Weeks 29 and 30 were both down by around -50% year-on-year (YoY).
• Year-on-year tonnage growth trends: Worldwide tonnages for week 30 exhibited a +6% YoY increase, which remains below the +12% average for the first half of 2024. Combined, weeks 29 and 30 demonstrated a +7% YoY increase, indicating a potential slowdown. Preliminary July estimates predict a YoY increase of +9% to +10%.
• Air cargo rates: Global rates fell slightly by -1% in week 30, but remained stable on a two-week basis (2Wo2W). Compared to last year, rates increased by +13% YoY, with significant rises from MESA (+55%) and the Asia-Pacific (+24%). Average worldwide rates are +45% higher than pre-COVID levels (July 2019).
• Significant regional rate increases: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. decreased by -3% in week 30, but are still up +62% YoY. Rates from Singapore to the U.S. surpassed $9 per kilo—more than double last year’s levels. Rates from MESA to Europe have more than doubled YoY, with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, and Dubai seeing some of the highest increases due to strong demand and limited capacity.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators maintain downward trends for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast, and remain stable for China to Europe.

Week to August 5, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have accelerated their downward trends for the third week in a row, falling from 60.5 to 58 days and 39.5 to 38 days, respectively, due to extended COGH transit times and existing port congestion across Asia and the U.S. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to Northern Europe has remained stable for the past two weeks, at 68 days.

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’ve seen less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW), from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand. We’ve seen shipping lines try to stabilize rates for the second half of August by introducing an early General Rate Increase (GRI) announcement.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK rates and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Port congestion in Asia is improving, but overall on-time performance for Asia-Europe trade remains suboptimal due to reroutings via the Cape of Good Hope. Blank sailings will continue in August. A few extra loaders have been injected into the FEWB to compensate for downsized vessels, and to maintain schedule reliability.
• Demand is strong, and floating rates remain on the higher end. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped slightly over the past two weeks. With blank sailings in place, we’re expecting the floating market to remain critical.
• Long-term named account space remains limited and restricted by carriers for space and equipment priority.
• Equipment shortages have improved a bit since May and June. For some Port of Loadings (POLs) with less direct calling, we still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs.
• Port congestion in Netherlands/Belgium, coupled with on-and-off strikes in Germany and France, has impacted terminal operations and last-mile deliveries. We recommend closely monitoring container movements.
• For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend selecting premium options as early as possible for an earlier estimated time of departure (ETD) and space with higher equipment priority.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• North Europe: Carriers have begun noticing the effects of reduced capacity due to full vessels. Demand remains stable, and some factories on the Northwest of the continent are closed for the months of July and August.
• Congestion in the Mediterranean region remains, with an average wait time of 4-7 days outside of the main ports of Italy and Spain. Also, strikes at ports in Southern Italy have exerted more pressure on certain services. The effects are now being felt in the East Mediterranean, where rates are increasing.
• North Europe: Yang Ming Line announced a GRI for the 1st of September. Mediterranean Shipping Company and Ocean Network Express are considering applying for a PSS in September. The intention is to stop rate deterioration.
• Mediterranean: Carriers already increased their rates for August. No news about new increases in September.
• We expect to see signs of the usual slack season in August starting next week.

[Ocean U.S. Exports]

• Capacity from the Southeastern U.S. has tightened routes to the Indian subcontinent, Middle Eastern ports, and North European ports, amid vessel omissions and blank sailings.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final Port of Discharge (POD) are losing capacity as appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• Challenges related to earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to persist for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking two weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the COGH, and rising demand have caused freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as yet-to-deploy capacity faces delays around the COGH.
• Large rollover pools have added further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use spot market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• India port issues: Two top ports, Nhava Sheva and Mundra, are facing terminal congestion issues due to heavy rainfall in Mundra, increased volume, and sliding/bunched sailing schedules. Carriers have resorted to early vessel gate closures to properly manage yard utilization and vessel loadings.
• Bangladesh backlog: Due to political protests in Bangladesh, there is a substantial backlog accumulating in the country. Vessels continue to work through this backlog, which is expected to further exacerbate ongoing congestion issues in Colombo, Sri Lanka. This is because over 50% of all cargo coming out of Bangladesh requires a transhipment in Colombo.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Global rate increases amid declining tonnages: Average global air cargo rates rose by +2% in the third week of July 2024 to $2.56 per kilo, despite a third consecutive week of worldwide tonnage declines. This rate is +14% higher than the same week last year, and +47% higher than pre-COVID levels in July 2019.
• Asia-Pacific rate surge: Spot rates from Asian-Pacific origins increased by +2% to $3.34 per kilo in week 29 (July 15-21), marking a +25% increase compared to the same week last year. The rate hike was driven by a +2% rise in average prices, despite a -2% week-on-week tonnage drop.
• Demand and rate dynamics to the U.S.: Rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. increased by +5% in week 29, with average spot prices exceeding $6 per kilo ($6.01), a +67% YoY rise. Chargeable weight from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. rose by +2% WoW and +8% YoY, although tonnages from China to the U.S. fell by -8% YoY.
• MESA to Europe trends: Demand from MESA origins to Europe, while still +15% higher than the same period last year, has cooled from the +30% to +50% levels we saw earlier in the year. Average spot rates from MESA to Europe in week 29 were $3.30 per kilo—more than double (+126%) their levels last year, with significant increases from Bangladesh (+178%), India (+161%), and Sri Lanka (+78%).

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators exhibit a downward trend for China to the U.S. West Coast, China to Europe, and China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 29, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 61 to 60.5 days and 40.5 to 39.5 days, respectively. The OTI for China to Northern Europe also decreased, dropping from 69.5 days to 68 days. The reason? Port congestion on all trade lanes is slightly improving.

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to the bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’re seeing less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW) from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand, with more significant pricing adjustments to the WC.
• Fixed rates: So far, shipping lines have not altered the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS), as the gap between NAC and FAK rates remains too large.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Volumes are very strong and exceed last year’s numbers on the FEWB. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia. A few extra loaders were injected into the FEWB in 2H July to compensate for downsized vessels and the extra transit time due to COGH routings.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to increase rate levels and are offering some extra space to adapt to supply and demand.
• Fixed rates: Named account allocation remains very limited. Carriers stopped offering new long-term rate offers back in May; they’re protecting existing named account customers that are performing on a regular basis and offering limited allocation cutbacks in August.
• Equipment situation: Carriers have improved equipment supply, but are still seeing some shortages, specifically for NAC. Carriers are prioritizing high-paying contracts.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• In North Europe, demand is stable and rates are following the same trend. Rate levels are expected to remain stable until the end of September.
• In the Mediterranean, congestion and the delays are forcing blank sailings, which is driving 100% utilization across services. As a result, carriers are increasing rates (in the form of Peak Season Surcharges and General Rate Increases (GRIs)).
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings from North Europe, and 2-3 weeks for bookings from the Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the Cape of Good Hope, and increases in demand are causing freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as no new capacity will be deployed until mid-month.
• Large rollover pools are adding further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use Spot Market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• Unrest in Bangladesh: Due to political protests, origin stakeholders have had limited access to the internet, social media, and telecommunications. Due to continued unrest, the Bangladeshi government made 7/22 and 7/23 public holidays. Delays are expected.
• Sri Lanka de-prioritization: Due to ongoing terminal congestion and changing rate levels in neighboring countries, Colombo as a port of loading has been deprioritized with regard to its typical direct sailings. Most carriers are now skipping the direct Colombo call and opting for a transhipment over Singapore for all shipments. This has put pressure on South Indian, Bangladeshi, and Colombo shipments, which typically rely on Colombo as a transhipment hub or port of loading.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
  Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Slight decline in worldwide tonnages: In week 28 (July 8-14, 2024), there was a -1% drop in global air cargo tonnages, with Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Africa experiencing declines of -5%, -2%, and -5%, respectively. Meanwhile, North America and Central and South America saw increases of +6% and +4%, respectively.
• Decrease in average worldwide rates: The average worldwide air cargo rate decreased by -1% to $2.50 per kilo in week 28, which is still +11% higher year-on-year (YoY) and +44% higher than in July 2019. Asia-Pacific and MESA origins saw significant year-on-year rate increases of +23% and +51%, respectively.
• Spot rate analysis: Spot rates from various East Asian origins to Europe decreased in week 28, with Thailand and Taiwan experiencing drops of -16% and -11%, respectively. Conversely, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan saw increases in spot rates to Europe of +7%, +5%, and +3%, respectively, despite a -8% fall in tonnages from Hong Kong.
• Stable U.S. spot rates from the Asia-Pacific: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. remained stable in week 28, with significant year-on-year increases of +63% from China and +38% from other Asian-Pacific origins.
• MESA to Europe trends: High tonnages and price levels from MESA to Europe continue due to Red Sea disruptions. In week 28, MESA to Europe demand dropped by -7%, but spot rates remained substantially higher than last year’s rates, with Dubai, India, and MESA seeing respective increases of +17%, +82%, and +16% in tonnages, and spot rates up by +126% since last year. India to Europe spot rates were $3.49 per kilo, up +158% YoY, while Bangladesh to Europe rates held firm at $4.25 per kilo.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators stabilize for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, while decreasing for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 22, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 62 to 61 days and from 41 to 40.5 days, respectively. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to Northern Europe increased, rising from 69 days to 69.5 days. The reason? European port congestion is nearing pandemic highs, while previous delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope pose ongoing challenges.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Severe weather conditions around the COGH caused further delays and will add capacity challenges for the U.S. East Coast. Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we see less space pressure on the West Coast, specifically Pacific Southwest (PSW) from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: General Rate Increases (GRIs) for July were successfully implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on peak conditions from May onwards. Nevertheless, we noticed that shipping lines are starting to slightly reduce and adjust their West Coast / East Coast pricing to maintain full vessels and XL support.
• Fixed rates: Carriers shared the new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1, which marks an increase after two successful implementation rounds. No further PSS increase was shared for the second half of July, and we see an overall stabilization of rates.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Port congestion in Asia is improving, but on-time performance (less than 50%) remains below 2023 levels. Equipment is still tight in North China and Central China.
• Bookings remain strong, with July void sailing plans in place that impact total available market capacity.
• Floating rates rose again for the second half of July. THE Alliance will be back to near-full capacity in August. More to follow after the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is announced on July 19.
• Premium options are still available in the market to get cargo loaded on earlier departure dates with higher equipment priority, mitigating the risk of rolling or no equipment.
• Port congestion in Europe, coupled with the strike in Germany and France, are impacting terminal operations and last-mile delivery. We highly recommend communicating with Flexport to track container movements.
• Flexport continues to monitor the situation. We advise booking early, placing bookings in smaller slots, and picking up empty containers as soon as possible. For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend choosing premium options as early as possible.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Blank sailings in the Mediterranean will continue due to congestion and delays outside of West Mediterranean (WMED) ports.
• North Europe rates will remain stable for August and September.
• In the Mediterranean, certain carriers have announced increases beginning in early August due to fully utilized vessels and blank sailings.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings departing from North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings departing from the Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
• Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating the ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Global air cargo demand dropped by -5% in the first week of July, with a significant -13% decrease from North America, -8% from Central & South America, -4% from Europe, and -3% from the Asia-Pacific, primarily due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
• Year-on-year (YoY), worldwide tonnages increased by +11% in week 27 and +13% in weeks 26 and 27 combined, consistent with the figures for June and Q2 2024.
• Average worldwide air cargo rates in week 27 were $2.57 per kilo, a +2% increase from the previous week and a +14% rise YoY. These rates are +48% higher compared to July 2019 (pre-COVID levels).
• Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. saw significant YoY increases: +$5.72 per kilo (+68%), with China at $5.34 per kilo (+38%) and Hong Kong at $4.84 per kilo (+12%).
• Rates from Vietnam to the U.S. reached $6.62 per kilo (+147% YoY), Thailand at $6.46 per kilo, and Singapore at $7.02 per kilo, all exhibiting substantial increases. Rates from Japan to the U.S. are slightly above $6 per kilo, up +64% YoY.

[Canada Rail Strike Update] (Source: Trains.com)

• Bargaining between Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National Railway Co (CN), who are represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) union, has resulted in disputes over rest periods between worker shifts.
• According to the union, the rail companies were attempting to remove rest provisions that are critical to safety.
  The Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) has informed CN that they intend to make a decision by August 9, 2024. A TCRC strike could begin 72 hours after a final ruling is made.
• A rail strike in Canada could prevent cargo from moving on rail from all major sea and inland port locations, directly affecting imports and exports into Canada via rail, apart from essentials.
• If a potential strike does go into effect, recommended solutions include transloading cargo at wet ports, diverting cargo to route via U.S. coastal ports for any cargo routing to the United States, and using east coast or all-water services to Montreal/Halifax to service Toronto and other major east coast cities.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators increase for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, while stabilizing for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 15, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast have plateaued, stabilizing at 62 days and concluding an increase that began in April 2024. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to the U.S. West Coast increased from 40 to 41 days. Last but not least, China to Northern Europe OTIs also rose from 66.5 to 69 days due to port congestion nearing pandemic highs, as well as delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope this past week.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – Extreme Weather Alert]

• Vessels have resumed transiting around the Cape of Good Hope, following the extreme weather in the region earlier. Wave heights have reduced to 23-26 feet and are expected to continue decreasing. Estimated arrival times for vessels have been delayed by 24-48 hours, and some vessel bunching may occur at ports globally.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, surpassing last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. However, structurally blank sailings have occurred due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. We see more premium offerings from shipping lines with expedited services and equipment and space guarantees, while other carriers try to reduce the backlog in Asia with extra loader (XL) space. With XL space to the Pacific Southwest (PSW), the situation is improving week over week, while the East Coast (EC) remains heavily overbooked.
• Floating rates: The General Rate Increase (GRI) for July was successfully implemented on all Transpacific Eastbound gateways based on the peak conditions we’re seeing this month. Shipping lines adjusted rates to the EC twice as much as to the West Coast (WC) to manage the massive booking intake. We’re seeing the first signs that rates will get extended into the second half of July.
• Fixed rates: Carriers shared the new Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1, marking another increase after two successful implementation rounds. We’re expecting that the PSS will get extended into the second half of July.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Equipment shortages and port congestion in Asia are improving, but on-time performance still falls short of 50% (per the latest Sea-Intelligence report). There are 10 blank sailings announced for Asia-North Europe in the second half of July and August.
• Floating rates rose again for the second half of July (by $500-800 per 40-foot container). Vessels remain full as the capacity cuts and bookings kick in, and customers are still looking for earlier estimated times of departure (ETDs) to mitigate cargo delays.
• Premium options are still available for getting cargo loaded on earlier departure dates with higher equipment priority, which can mitigate the risk of rolling or no equipment.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• The congestion in the Mediterranean, along with schedule reliability issues and blank sailings, remains the same, leading to increased rates for July.
• North Europe demand has not been affected by the reduced capacity, and the majority of carriers are extending their rate levels until the end of Q3.
• Equipment deficits in certain areas of South/East Germany and the Hinterlands remain an issue.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings Ex. North Europe, and 2-3 weeks in advance for bookings ex Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Ocean – U.S. Exports]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
• Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating the ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD and TAC Index)

• Global tonnages (+10%) and rates (+9%) continue to show strong YoY improvements, driven by the Red Sea crisis and e-commerce. That said, there are major differences across trade lanes.
• Continuous rate increases in Asia (+18% YoY) and the Indian subcontinent (+55% YoY) over the past 5 weeks have been driven by ocean to air conversions.
• American and European export rates declined YoY due to additional passenger capacity (passenger travel is on the rise).
• Rates from major China hubs have slowly but continuously creeped up since Q1, reaching more than $6/kg at quarter-end in June. They should stabilize in July (a slow ecommerce season), then ramp back up in September.
• Rates have risen dramatically from Southeast Asia origins, particularly Vietnam, driven by increased demand (ocean to air conversions) and congestion at major CN/HK hubs due to e-commerce. Express shipments from Vietnam reached > $10/kg at quarter-end.
• Rates from the Indian Subcontinent remain elevated, with backlogs at most major Indian airports and severe congestion in Bangladesh.
• Ecommerce players expect a strong peak season with 20-30% more volume (and up to 60% more volume in the weeks leading up to Black Friday).
• Traditional shippers are expecting strong Q4 sales. In particular, we expect strong volumes from Apple launches (the iPhone 16 contains a number of new features).
• Capacity is largely sold out from Asia for Q4 2024. Most Asian carriers are sold out of their ad hoc charter capacity until the end of the year, and sold > 85% of scheduled capacity. European, U.S., and Middle Eastern carriers (including Flexport on our own charters) have sold > 80% of their fixed capacity already, only setting aside space for profitable spots.
• Flexport advises that shippers reserve capacity as soon as possible. Focus on forwarders that have strong Block Space Agreements (BSAs) and a solid charter base to mitigate delays, be flexible with booking sizes, and explore creative routing for cargo that can wait.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, July 11 at 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators explore a new trajectory for Europe while returning to former patterns for U.S.-bound routes.

Week to July 8, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast continues its ascent after its first decrease in 6 weeks, going from 59 days to 62 days. In a similar upturn, the OTI for China to the U.S. West Coast also increased from 38.5 days to 40 days. Last but not least, China to Northern Europe OTIs also began rising, with a small uptick from 66 days to 66.5 days due to port congestion nearing pandemic highs, and also delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope.

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com