分类： <span>市场动向(中文)</span>

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean – Europe] The European Commission (EC) has decided not to extend the Consortia Block Exemption Regulation (CBER) when it expires on April 25, 2024. In place since 2009, the CBER was designed to encourage competition in the shipping industry. What impact this will have on shipping to and from Europe remains unclear. (source: JOC)
• [Ocean – Canada] Talks continue between representatives of the Port of Montreal Longshoremen’s Union and the Maritime Employers Association (MEA) as their current collective agreement expires on December 31, 2023. Longshoremen at the Port of Montreal are looking for wage increases of at least 20% over the next four years and full job security in three years, while the port operator is looking to limit how many workers get that level of security and a contract that guarantees union peace through the end of the decade.
• [Ocean – TPEB] October capacity is down as expected with Golden Week, however it’s less of a drop than we saw during Lunar New Year (LNY). November’s outlook is good, but subject to change. Demand ex-China is just starting to come online this week, bookings over the next 1-2 weeks will determine capacity for November. Q4 outlook: Expect to see a good number of blank sailings, but with overall capacity comparable to Q2/Q3 numbers. The pre-LNY push will likely start in December. More new builds will continue coming online, carriers will most likely offset with more blanks and by moving smaller vessels to other markets.
• [Air Freight – Global] In September, global air cargo tonnages increased by nearly 3% and rates rose by 5% compared to August, according to WorldACD Market Data. Despite this boost, September tonnages were still down 2% year on year, marking the smallest monthly YoY decrease in 2023.
• [Ocean – FEWB] The market on the EUR trade remains flat. As expected, carriers are planning another round of GRI from Nov. 1, aiming to push up the market again to cover operation costs. Ocean Alliance announced 5 more void plans for November, in order to support the potential GRI carriers may plan more voids if cargo recovery is still not ideal from Mid-Oct. MED trade: Following NEUR, there’s also a GRI for WMED, but so far oversupply remains the case. Expect the market to drop further if the current round of voided sailings doesn’t lead to general strengthening.
• [U.S. Exports] TAEB and TPWB are both seeing blank sailings impacting equipment levels at inland IPI locations. Please book 2+ weeks prior to CRD to ensure an optimal booking.

N. America Vessel Dwell Times

The Week In News

ILWU Dockworkers Union’s Sway at West Coast Ports Is Tested in Bankruptcy
In advance of a judgment against it for what a federal jury found to be illegal work stoppages at the Port of Portland in 2019, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has declared bankruptcy. The ILWU represents more than 22,000 workers at 29 ports along the U.S. West Coast, and as such wields a significant amount of leverage when it comes to port operations and controlling the flow of goods entering and leaving the U.S.

IATA: First Air Cargo Demand Growth in 19 Months
As part of its August air freight analysis, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released numbers showing that global cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) were up 1.5% year-on-year. At the same time, they showed CTKs being 1.3% below their pre-pandemic level in 2019. According to an IATA representative, “Air cargo demand grew by 1.5% over the previous August. This is the first year-on-year growth in 19 months, so it is certainly welcome news. But it is off a low 2022 base and market signals are mixed.”

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends To Watch

• [Weather – Asia] Typhoon Koinu is currently centered east of Southern Taiwan and is forecast to move west-northwest over the next several days. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall in southern Taiwan by the morning of Oct. 5 and continue to move westward across the Southern Taiwan Strait through Oct. 8 while weakening to a tropical storm. Air impacts: Starting on the night of Oct. 4 there will likely be flight delays and cancellations across Taiwan as the typhoon approaches, these delays will persist through Oct. 5 as the system moves westward over Southern Taiwan. Ocean impacts: Starting on Oct. 4 there will likely be vessel delays, especially in the south of Taiwan, with port closures likely at Kaohsiung. These delays/closures will persist through Oct. 5 before conditions return to normal as the system continues westward. As the storm moves westward across the Southern Taiwan Strait between Oct. 5-7 vessels transiting north/south along East China could be impacted.
• [Ocean – FEWB] EUR trade: With soft demand and Golden Week impact, rates continue to drop. Ocean Alliance has announced 5 more void plans for Nov, the other alliances may still announce their own void plans even full service take-out over the rest of year. MED trade: demand has become weak, matching North Europe and there have been blank sailing announcements from all 3 alliances. Rates keep dropping and the spot rate is open again for WMED.
• [Ocean – TAEB] New blank sailings across the trade and further reduction of contract rates is demonstrating the widely available capacity from U.S. coastal ports and Midwest rail ramps.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Due to the ongoing drought situation in the Amazon region, ocean carriers have announced a Low Water Surcharge for all cargo going in and out of the Port of Manus in Brazil. Other carriers have pulled their service completely. Rio Negro’s water level fell by an average of 30 centimeters (11.8 inches) a day since mid-September and stood at 16.4 meters (54 feet) last week, approximately six meters below its level the same time last year.
• [Air – Global] While general air cargo tonnage has seen a decline year-to-date, special air cargo product verticals have experienced growth according to WorldACD Market Data analysis. Despite a 7% drop in total worldwide chargeable weight from January to August 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, specific product categories such as vulnerable/high tech, live animals, perishables, and valuables have shown notable growth, with special cargo products overall growing by 3%.

N. America Vessel Dwell Times

The Week In News

[VIDEO] Watch: How COVID Changed the Shipping Industry — Forever

Innovations developed during the height of the pandemic are helping ecommerce logistics stay attractive to consumers who became accustomed to package tracking, easy returns, and more. This according to Jakki Krage Strako, Chief Commerce and Business Solutions Officer with the U.S. Postal Service. Consumers have taken their expectations back to the office and remain loyal to companies who provide the best support and service.

FMCSA Will Award $44M To Improve CDL Processes

The money is intended to help streamline the process of training and onboarding badly needed new drivers by increasing staffing at Commercial Driver License (CDL) training centers, improving cross-state reporting, and other moves to help bolster the supply chain. According to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, “With these grants, we are helping states bring more well-trained drivers into this essential field, strengthening our supply chains for years to come.”

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – FEWB] With soft demand and the expected impact of Golden Week, FAK rates continue to drop prior to the Golden Week holiday. Capacity cut for October is estimated to be 20-30%. On the Mediterranean trade demand has weakened and more blank sailings have been announced from all 3 alliances.
• [Air – Global] Overall market demand for air freight capacity is on the increase — particularly from Asia to the U.S. and Europe. South East Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia are most impacted with surging demand levels due to consumer electronics and semiconductor production. At the same time, China and Hong Kong are experiencing rising demand levels due to ecommerce activity and New Product Introduction (NPI). Because all of this volume routes through 3 primary export gateways in Asia—HKG, PVG, and TPE—capacity is impacted resulting in extended transit times and rising rate levels.
• [U.S. Exports] US Export trades remain wide open with all carriers aggressively pursuing volume and pricing accordingly. Filling the backhaul remains a top priority and low rates reflect this aggressive push for market share accordingly.
• [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Ocean freight demand ex India has softened in September resulting in carriers dropping rates. Drop in demand is expecting to persist through the first half of October.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Space remains open both northbound and southbound—and both to and from both coasts. Brazil exports: Vessel utilization at a very healthy level (~90-95%). We recommend placing bookings 4-5 weeks prior to CRD.

Wider Trends Worth Watching:

• Some shippers are beginning to restock after selling through last year’s overstocks, leading carriers to continue expecting a muted peak season using small gains around back-to-school and Halloween as guideposts.
• Mexico is seen as a growing market due to the nearshoring trend continuing to expand. Yard capacity south of the border at Laredo continues to grow and more rail links are being established.
• Shipping into the USWC is rebounding after uncertainty around labor actions and congestion in the first half of the year. Delays at the Panama Canal are a contributing factor, as are the lower rates compared to the U.S. Gulf Coast/USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

[VIDEO] How the Panama Canal’s Drought Is Threatening Global Supply Chains   Ongoing drought conditions in the region have led the Panama Canal Authority to impose several layers of restrictions on vessels transiting this crucial sea route. This 10-minute explainer video does a good job of summarizing the situation while introducing additional context and background to ensure viewers are seeing the whole picture. Port of Long Beach Sees Modest Start to Peak Shipping Season According to the NRF, 2023 container imports to the U.S. will hit 22.3 million TEUs, down ~12.5% from last year yet up from the 22 million seen in pre-pandemic 2019. Numbers at the Port of Long Beach as we enter peak season seem to support that prediction, seeing 682,312 TEUs last month, a decrease of 15.4% from August 2022, but an increase of 18% over July.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TAWB] Some carriers have announced withdrawal of capacity ex North Europe to US East Coast as the demand hasn’t picked up enough to justify the additional capacity—leading to the expectation that rates will bounce back from the beginning of November. Some additional capacity might enter the Mediterranean to Canada market, Ocean Alliance should announce this soon.
• [Ocean – LATAM SB] Exports overall are down 20% since the same time last year. Since the beginning of the year, MSC has been losing market share and as a result they have proactively decreased Q4 rates to West Coast South America in an attempt to regain market share. Although they have decreased rates, they are still above other ocean carriers in the market.
• [Ocean – LATAM > Canada] Crowley (niche LATAM carrier) recently announced the launch of a new service in partnership with CN rail that connects Mexico and Canada with a weekly ocean/rail combination between the port of Tuxpan, MX and Mobile, AL with a 2.5 day TT. This service is starting Nov 7 and they will offer dry and reefer services. This is targeting businesses that traditionally relied on FTL services connecting MX-Canada (west coast) and/or slower ocean transits connecting MX Gulf to Canada EC.
• [Ocean – U.S. exports] TAEB: Rates are rising out of Houston to north Europe base ports related to increased cargo routing through Houston via rail.
• [Ocean Ports – USEC] Hurricane Lee is moving up the US East Coast and approaching Canada. Expect vessel arrival days as the storm passes each port. The Port of Halifax, Canada, is closely monitoring the storm. Vessel delays to the port are highly likely.
• [Ocean – TPEB] September capacity overall at ~85%, a 5% increase from August and the 2nd highest month for total capacity this year. No further drop in capacity for September is expected. Vessel plans will remain in lead up to Golden Week (1 October) Golden Week closures expected to begin September 25/26, with most factories closed Sept 23 – Oct 8.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Flexport Launches a Revolution to Democratize Supply Chain for Entrepreneurs This week, Flexport launched a supply chain revolution for entrepreneurs, the first truly all-in-one tool and end-to-end global trade solution powering instant access to financing, freight, fulfillment, and replenishment to all major marketplaces and retail stores. Those who want even more can join Flexport+, a membership program offering exclusive access to industry-leading supply chain financing, priority shipping services, and easy access to supply chain experts for heightened support. NRF acquires Reverse Logistics Association In a move to help its members establish and meet full-circle sustainability goals, The National Retail Federation (NRF) recently announced it had acquired the Reverse Logistics Association (RLA). With the continued growth in consumer demand for a true circular economy and visibility into what happens to goods after return, the NRF says they’re now better positioned than ever to support their members in meeting these demands as well as assisting with the growing issue of returns fraud.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – LATAM Northbound] ONE has introduced their new service, the FLX service, which will call at: Callao – Paita – Guayaquil – Cartagena – Port Everglades – Puerto Cortes – Cartagena.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Carriers continue blank sailing programs as import volumes remain uncertain. This could put a space crunch into the market as we approach Golden Week.
• [Ocean – ISC>N. America] Operations have normalized across ports in northwestern India. Overall demand is down YoY in terms of the value of goods shipped. Volume in terms of TEU down ~14% Jan – July YoY. Watch for blank sailings in September due to lower demand from India to southeast U.S. ports such as Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk.
• [Regional – LATAM] Brazil exports are on the rise and GRIs are being implemented by all major ocean carriers. We expect volume to continue increasing into Q4 and recommend booking 4+ weeks ahead of sailing.
• [Regional – U.S.] Rain in the US Southwest continues to impact rail and road traffic. Shipments moving from California ports into the Southwest and Texas can expect to see 2-3 day delays in transit times. We are keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Lee which formed in the Atlantic and is forecast to become a major Hurricane. Earliest impacts to shipping would be the end of next week.
• [Air – Mode update] Air cargo volumes have continued to decrease through the year, narrowing to their lowest level as of July. This indicates that the market is showing signs of bottoming out, though analysts say that strengthening demand shows reason to be cautiously optimistic.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

ILWU Ratifies 6-Year Contract With a 75% majority, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) ratified a new 6-year contract with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) this week. The contract will retroactively start on July 1, 2022 (when the previous contract expired) and extends through July 1, 2028. The ratification comes at the end of a 13-month process that included labor actions, fears of a strike that could have severely hampered the U.S. supply chain, and multiple rounds of negotiations between the two parties. The contract affects 22,000 dock workers at 29 ports up and down the U.S. West Coast. Chatbots Are Trying to Figure Out Where Your Shipments Are Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November of last year, more companies have started investigating ways to use Generative AI, the technology that powers this and other recently launched tools, in their customer service and other public-facing aspects of their business. Artificial intelligence has been making its way into the backend of the industry for several years already, but the ability of generative AI to quickly parse data and respond to humans in a human-like manner has companies looking at ways to lighten the workload on their external-facing employees as well.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – U.S. Gulf Coast] Hurricane IDALIA is causing disruptions in the Southeast. Flights from Tampa and Jacksonville are canceled today (August 30th) and the ports of Tampa, Jacksonville, Charleston, and Savannah are all closed. Expect ports to reopen 24-36 hours after storm passage, if it is safe to do so.
• [Regional – East Asia] Super Typhoon Saola is currently centered north of Luzon. The storm will move northwest-westward through Luzon Strait through the 31st while maintaining its intensity as a super typhoon. While Saola is not currently expected to make landfall in Taiwan or Southeast China there will be significant weather impacts across the region.
• [Trucking – Mexico] A nationwide strike has been averted for now as officials from the Mexican Alliance of Carrier Organizations (AMOTAC) have agreed to sit down with federal officials. The scheduled action would have ground trucking to a halt across Mexico, as well as impacting cross-border traffic into and out of the U.S.
• [Rail – U.S.] Norfolk Southern has said that the impacts of a recent outage could last for several weeks, though no shutdown is expected. A spokesperson said there were no indications of a cyberattack, though the cause of Monday’s outage is still under investigation.
• [Ocean – Indian Subcontinent] Indications of a rate increase on the Indian to U.S. East Coast lane have been announced within the market. Space is largely available to the East Coast, while the West Coast remains tight as these services are shared with the Transpacific market and are seeing an uptick in demand.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Wind-Powered Cargo Ship Sets Sail in a Move To Make Shipping Greener In the race to uncover ways to lower the carbon footprint of the global shipping industry, a new project called Wind Wings stands to make an outsized impact. The project, a combined effort of UK-based BAR Technologies, Cargill, and the European Union, among others—retrofits steel and glass composite sails onto existing freighters. These high-tech versions of an old-school sail stand to cut fuel use by 1.5 metric tons per wing, per day on an average ocean route. Panama Canal Delays Have Shippers Mulling Freight Diversions The ongoing delays at the Panama Canal due to drought conditions in the region are causing some shippers to seek alternative routes to get their inventory to its destination. This may mean sending goods destined for the East Coast of the U.S. to ports on the West Coast then using roads and rail to finish the journey. Or it may mean sending containers on ships heading through the Suez Canal, despite the possibility of longer lead times and higher upfront costs.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Intermodal – U.S.] Rainfall from Hurricane Hilary has caused the closure of the Union Pacific and BNSF mainline rail between Southern California and Texas. The railroads expect service to be restored by 8/25 but shippers should expect additional delays as rail operations return to normal.
• [U.S. Exports – TPWB/TAEB] Overall demand remains soft, with carriers not eyeing a bounce back until late Q1’24. Rates continue to be aggressively priced by carriers in order to fill ships as capacity remains broadly available.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Demand remains flat—high inflation, high inventories, rising energy costs, and geopolitical instability are still impacting the demand on the European side. Carriers are eyeing a potential GRI for sometime in September, and more blank sailings and sliding vessels have been announced for next month as well.
• [Ocean – LATAM Southbound] Exports overall remain down and ocean carriers have continued to proactively reduce FAK rates in the hopes of attracting new business.
• [Ocean – LATAM Northbound] Brazil’s peak season usually kicks off in Q3 and although volumes are not at the same level as last year, vessel utilization has started to increase. As a result the three main ocean carriers (CMA, ZIM, MSC) have announced and/or implemented a GRI.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Panama Canal Extends Transit Restrictions Through Sept. 2 The Panama Canal Authority said last week that current restrictions on vessel draft and the number of vessels granted transit daily will remain in place until at least Sept. 2, 2023. Those restrictions are a maximum allowed draft of 44 feet, or 13.41 meters, and 32 vessels per day. Those passages are divided into categories, with 14 vessels with reservations per day in the original locks (only suitable for smaller cargo ships) and 10 in the newer, larger locks. The remaining eight spots are given to vessels without reservations. What Was Once a Weed Could Fuel Jet Engines Biomass fuels, or fuels created by processing plant matter, are a growing area of interest for those involved in addressing the carbon footprint of the global supply chain (like Flexport’s Flexport.org division). And as interest in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) grows, several companies are hoping their non-food crop oilseed plants will be the first step to a carbon-neutral supply chain. These so-called ‘cover crops’ are grown during fallow seasons in the same fields as other food crops like soy or corn. That allows farmers to maintain their fields while generating additional income, and the result is a product that many hope will usher in that more sustainable supply chain.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean-TAWB] After dropping for several weeks, rates have stabilized below pre-pandemic numbers. Carriers will start trying to maintain healthy levels by managing capacity with possible blank sailings or slowing transit speeds in the coming weeks/months.
• [Ocean-TPEB] Capacity is down from 648k TEU to 514k TEU, dropping but remaining close to the four week average of 525k.
• [Ocean – ISC > U.S.] Indian Subcontinent: No GRI has been announced for the second half of August. There are some reductions on Sri Lanka (LK) and Bangladesh (BD) origins as well as North West India to USEC. Be aware that monsoon season and a heatwave in Bangladesh may cause some operational delays at origin.
• [Intermodal – Canada] Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) announced the addition of 1,000 53-foot refrigerated containers to its intermodal network, more than doubling their existing fleet and bringing more options to customers using their Mexico Midwest Express (MMX) Series premium intermodal service.
• [Ocean – LANB] From the East Coast of South America, vessel utilization remains healthy and picking up right in time for peak season, while from the west utilization is low due to the saturation in the market. ONE will also be injecting capacity into the USEC.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

How Canada’s West Coast Port Labor Negotiations Unfolded: A Timeline After a bumpy process lasting five months, port workers in British Columbia have signed a tentative contract and operations are back to full speed ahead. In those months we’ve seen a 13-day strike, an illegal work stoppage, one voted-down proposed settlement, two tentative deals, and a federal intervention by the Canadian government. Now the focus has turned to rebuilding trust in a supply chain that has taken a financial beating during the uncertainties of the past months. ‘This Is Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better’: Panama Canal Pileup Due to Drought Reaches 154 Vessels Wait times to transit the Panama Canal currently sit at 21 days, with 154 vessels waiting for their turn. The backup is due to restrictions put in place by the Panama Canal Authority as a result of ongoing drought conditions that began last spring and are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Some sectors have already begun rerouting through the Atlantic Basin or shifting back to U.S. West Coast ports, after having shifted to the East Coast earlier in the year due to labor issues.

 

Source from Felxport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – Canada] A majority of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada membership ratified the latest deal, signaling an end to the ongoing labor disputes of the past few months. Any remaining backlog is expected to be clear of the ports in the coming weeks. Please reach out to your account team if you have questions about your shipments.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern Korea tomorrow, August 10. The storm is expected to impact both air and ocean operations in the region, with the port of Busan expected to see impacts beginning the night of the 9th and lasting at least through the 11th.
• [Ocean – All] Driven by the strength of U.S. consumer spending trends and ongoing reductions in capacity, carriers have announced another round of GRIs across all lanes to begin August 15.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Demand on this lane remains soft but is picking up, vessel utilization is improving, index pricing has stabilized, and more blank sailings have been announced.
• [Trucking – U.S./Can] Cross-border market conditions remain soft, with rates continuing to drop. Shippers should anticipate reasonable rates and strong service on all freight to continue at least through the near term.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

In the Freight Business, It Feels Like a Recession [AUDIO] With falling rates and rising costs, the U.S. trucking industry is feeling some pains after three years of increasing demand, decreasing driver pools, and other pandemic-induced effects. “When you had that surge in prices, people responded to it and thought, ‘How can we supply more?’” said Flexport Chief Economist Phil Levy. “And that wrong-footed a lot of people in the business, because they had prepared for a continuing boom,” Levy said. What’s Working For — and Against — Retailers Heading Into the Holidays? In an industry that relies heavily on historical data trends to forecast upcoming cycles, this year’s upcoming holiday season presents a new set of conflicting scenarios. Working in its favor are the facts that inflation is down, consumer sentiment is up, a UPS strike was averted, and consumers are itching to get back to ‘normal.’ On the flip side we see that those same consumers are hungry for bargains, the end of student loan deferrals is looming, and political/social unrest still threatens some decisions retailers make on where to focus their efforts.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Regional – British Columbia] A third tentative agreement has been reached between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Canada and the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA)—with a vote scheduled for Friday. As the situation continues to be fast-changing, please reach out to your account representative for the latest information on potential impacts to your shipments.
• [Regional – Panama Canal] As of July 30, daily capacity at the Panama Canal has been lowered to roughly 32 vessels per day (10 vessels allowed in the Neopanamax lock and 22 in the Panamax lock) with potential for even steeper adjustments depending on future weather forecasts and other factors.
• [Ocean – TPEB] Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles will be closed Thursday, August 3 while members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) meet to discuss the status of contract negotiations.
• [Regional – East Asia] As of writing, Typhoon Khanun is centered west of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to gradually move west-northwestward into the East China Sea through Thursday the 3rd. Port impacts are possible, please check with your account representative for updated info on potential impact on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Why Supply Chain Execs Should Watch the U.S. Housing Market In this panel discussion with Supply Chain Dive, Flexport’s Chief Economist, Phil Levy, weighs in on the Federal Reserve’s attempt to control inflation since March of last year by increasing interest rates and how this puts a damper on the demand for personal consumer goods. He advises businesses to not overextend themselves and “watch the labor market and whether core inflationary measures are moving significantly downwards.” Could Generative AI Solve Fashion’s Excess Stock Problems? Advocates for generative AI believe that focusing on building the proper foundations of data science and machine learning now will pave the way for an easy-to-use generative AI-powered supply chain in the future. AI, in its current state, has already transformed supply chain management through more accurate demand forecasting, more insightful data analyses, and faster decision-making. But generative AI has the potential to take these benefits one step further by speeding up the inventory management process, for example, and solving present and future supply chain challenges.

 

Source from Flexport.com